(Bloomberg) -- The Middle East could help ease a global diesel-supply crunch as it drives an expansion in refining capacity in the coming year.

Gasoline and diesel prices have surged to records this year in nations including the US and the UK, as oil refiners struggle to make up for the loss of Russian crude and other petroleum products. Europe is reliant on diesel imports and is looking to regions such as the Middle East to replace lower shipments from across the Atlantic. 

Refiners in the Middle East will process 8.8 million barrels a day of crude in 2023, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency. That’s about 1 million barrels a day above 2019 levels, which would roughly compensate for the amount that Europe will lose over the period.

“The Middle East start-ups are the only major incremental source of products supply this year, which has become increasingly important due to constrained global refining capacity,” said George Dix, an analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd.. The major impact for oil markets will be in diesel and low-sulfur fuel oil, with Kuwait’s Al-Zour plant geared toward the latter fuel, he said. 

Here’s a list of some major projects in the region:

• Other Iraq projects considered have included Missan/Maysan, Nasiriya, Kirkuk, Samawa and Kut

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.