(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Nascar legend Dale Earnhardt, who died in an accident at Daytona Beach, Florida, 19 years ago this week, once said “finishing races is important, but racing is more important.”

Which brings us in a roundabout way to U.S. sanctions on Rosneft Oil Co. PJSC.

President Donald Trump visited the Daytona International Speedway this weekend, taking what might be called a presumptive-victory lap of his own. Florida is a swing state Trump won in 2016 with a margin of victory of just 1.2%. In the 2018 midterms, while Republicans won the gubernatorial and a senate race, they did so with exceedingly tight margins. Meanwhile, Democratic candidates flipped two House seats. A campaign stop at the Great American Race is critical with November just nine months away.

Which brings us to Rosneft. Two days after the Nascar festivities, the State Department announced it would sanction a subsidiary of the Russian oil major for violating U.S. sanctions on Venezuela. Rosneft has become an increasingly important factor in the Trump Administration’s efforts to oust President Nicolas Maduro. As state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, has crumpled under the weight of mismanagement and sanctions, so Rosneft has stepped in with loans and, U.S. officials allege, help in shipping Venezuelan barrels in defiance of sanctions. In response, the U.S. is taking action against Rosneft Trading SA, the company’s Switzerland-based trading arm, and the subsidiary’s chairman.

Journalistic cliche deems sanctions are “slapped” on a company or individual. In this case, it’s more of a slow, gentle caress. The State Department went out of its way to clarify the parent company wasn’t being touched — a move that would roil global oil markets, given Rosneft accounts for about 5% of global output. Non-U.S. entities appear to be exempt. That, along with a three-month period for U.S. persons and entities to wind down existing dealings with Rosneft Trading, suggests this is a carefully calibrated escalation on Washington’s part.

Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington-based analytics firm, suggests viewing this process through the prism of U.S. election politics. He notes that Trump feted Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido at the State of the Union address earlier this month. While Guaido has made limited progress in dislodging Maduro, he is a sympathetic figure around whom Trump can rally support for, and advertise, his Venezuela policy. Two key constituencies in that regard are Cuban-American and Venezuelan-American voters clustered in southern Florida. As Book puts it: “Trump won the Daytona 500. He’s yet to win the Miami Herald.”

It is highly doubtful the administration has appetite for full-on confrontation with Rosneft — with all that would entail for oil — in an election year. The same goes for adventurism in Caracas. But intensifying pressure, or the appearance of it, on America’s adversaries is a different story.

In that sense, when it comes to sanctions pertaining to Venezuela, Trump may be more focused for now on the racing rather than winning the race. Oil traders may take that as a signal to relax somewhat about the prospects for sudden, Venezuela-inspired disruption between now and November. The question they should be asking themselves is what happens after that.

To contact the author of this story: Liam Denning at ldenning1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy, mining and commodities. He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal's Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times' Lex column. He was also an investment banker.

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