(Bloomberg) -- The two European leaders most closely allied to Russian President Vladimir Putin before he launched his invasion of Ukraine won decisive election victories on pledges to stay out of the war.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has spent 12 years consolidating his grip on power and clashing with the European Union over democratic values, clinched a fourth consecutive term after leading his Fidesz party to a crushing victory over a broad opposition alliance.

In neighboring Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic won five more years as president and his ruling Serbian Progressive Party was in position to form a majority-backed government. Like Orban, Vucic has drawn criticism from his rivals and countries in the EU, which he wants Serbia to join, for suppressing political opposition. Both had until recently defied warnings from western partners by cultivating ties with Moscow and Beijing.

The results expose one of the thorniest issues facing the EU: How to deal with current members or future aspirants who defy the bloc’s rule-of-law standards and veer from their peers on important geopolitical issues such as Ukraine. At the same time, Orban and Vucic may face deeper international isolation, with Hungary at risk of losing billions of euros in EU funding and Serbia struggling to advance with talks to join the wealthy single market. 

“We scored such a huge victory that was visible even from the Moon, but certainly from Brussels,” Orban told supporters after the vote, referring to the seat of the EU in the Belgian capital.

Orban’s party was on track to maintain its two-thirds majority in the 199-seat parliament, according to results with more than 90% of ballots counted. A majority of that size will allow it to change any law, including the constitution, without opposition support.

Until recently, a new term would have been a defining moment for the 58-year-old Orban. But the war in Hungary’s eastern neighbor, which has killed thousands of civilians and driven more than 4 million to flee abroad, upended the election campaign, forcing him to walk a political tightrope. 

He tried to distance himself from Putin by condemning Russia’s actions and backing EU sanctions against his regime, while opening Hungary’s borders to about half a million Ukrainian refugees. At the same time, Orban limited support for Kyiv, refusing to let weapons shipments cross Hungary and rejecting a ban of Russian oil and gas imports, drawing condemnation from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

“He is virtually the only one in Europe to openly support Mr. Putin,” Zelenskiy said a day before Hungary’s vote, referring to Orban. 

The Hungarian leader’s message -- heavily supported by pro-government media outlets that he has transformed into the EU’s biggest propaganda machine -- was that joining a rush by fellow EU and NATO members to aid Ukraine with weapons would drag Hungary into the war. That resonated with voters, while the opposition suggested that the ballot was a choice between East and West. 

“Propaganda won this war,” opposition leader Peter Marki-Zay said in his concession speech.

Orban may have little time to celebrate. He’ll have to navigate a new EU mechanism that links funding to adherence to rule of law, which was adopted in 2020 after the Hungarian premier outmaneuvered the bloc’s concerns about the rollback of democratic norms for the better part of the decade. Should it be activated this year, it threatens to deprive Hungary of as much as $40 billion. 

Unlike before, Orban may no longer may be able to count even on his closest EU allies. His most outspoken critics, in fact, have been Hungary’s regional peers including Poland, whose president warned Orban that his policy toward Ukraine would end up being “very costly” for him.

Putin Ally

Vucic, 52, secured about 59% of the vote in the presidential contest, more than enough to avoid a runoff, according to a partial count taken by the non-governmental Center for Free Elections and Democracy. His Progressive Party-led bloc won about 43% in the parliamentary ballot.  

He has struck a balanced position between Russia, a traditional Serbian ally, and the EU, which has piled pressure on Belgrade to adopt its raft of sanctions targeting the Kremlin. Although Serbia condemned Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in a United Nations resolution, Vucic has said it’s not in the country’s interest to join the EU penalties. 

The opposition has failed to gain traction in a country with divided sympathies between Moscow and the EU. A poll last month showed that half of Serbs want their country to remain neutral, though of those to choose a side, more expressed a preference for Russia. 

“The most important thing for Serbia is to have good relations in the region and to continue on its European path, without ruining its ties with traditional friends,” Vucic told supporters late Sunday in Belgrade.

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