(Bloomberg) -- Volatility in European natural gas options has fallen this year, signaling that traders are steering clear of big bets after recent disruptions highlighted the fragility of the region’s supplies.

Implied volatility in the benchmark futures — a measure of how expensive derivative contracts are — has almost halved since the start of the year. The contracts are now at the lowest levels since April 2021, months before the region’s Russian gas flows were curtailed, triggering the price spikes that led to the continent’s energy crisis.

The data indicates that while the region’s gas inventories are high for the season, caution is dominating a market that remains extremely sensitive to potential supply disruptions. That includes maintenance at facilities in top-supplier Norway as well as the potential fragility of Russian gas flows through Ukraine. 

Increased competition with Asia — where summer temperatures have soared in some parts — for liquefied natural gas cargoes could also see Europe receive less gas than initially planned if demand spikes. 

“The only conclusion that can be drawn is that the wait-and-see position remains,” analysts at Engie SA’s EnergyScan wrote in a note.

The decline in options volatility coincides with the end of a period of price swings in front-month future contracts as the market has been quick to react to drivers that could make it harder to build up fuel inventories for winter. Benchmark Dutch futures gained as much as 2.2% on Friday and have risen over 20% since the start of the restocking season in April. 

Temperatures are set to stay mild in most of northwest Europe this weekend, before rising next week. That, combined with still sluggish industrial consumption, is likely to help contain sudden price moves. 

Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, rose 1.06% to €33.60 a megawatt-hour at 9:04 a.m. in Amsterdam. 

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