(Bloomberg) --

Normally filled with the aroma of coffee and almond brownies, the Exploding Bakery in Exeter, southwest England, has been shut for weeks due to the coronavirus. Yet even if the U.K. government starts to lift its nationwide lockdown, co-founder Oli Coysh isn’t sure he would re-open.

With footfall likely to be sparse and no guarantee that the restrictions wouldn’t be re-imposed, starting up again would mean taking the risk of incurring wage and raw-material costs without any certainty that his 1.2 million pounds ($1.5 million) of annual sales will re-materialize.

“Maybe we are better off just mothballing for as long as we can,” said Coysh, who has furloughed all but one of his 25 employees. “You’re in a storm, you batten down the hatches and weather it out. If you try to fight it, you run the risk of losing everything.”

Coysh’s dilemma highlights a problem that is facing policy makers across Europe as they attempt to return national economies to normality in the months ahead. While it lies within their power to relax lockdowns, governments may find it harder to get businesses, employees and consumers to resume their previous patterns of behavior. Firms will be concerned about sales returning, workers about their personal safety, and customers about their income.

“We need to get the calculator out and crunch the numbers,” said Coysh. “If we are a sinking ship, it’s best to plug as many holes as possible.”

In Italy, restrictions will begin to be eased from May 4, Germany has already allowed some schools and smaller stores to reopen, and France and Spain have signaled tentative moves to lift some lockdown measures.

Britain’s nationwide lockdown is due for review on May 7, and members of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party are already calling for restrictions to be relaxed as the economy takes a battering.

Economic Damage

Output is falling at the fastest pace in decades and concerns are growing about the human cost of deeper poverty and unemployment. Yet relaxing the shutdown also carries the risk of a resurgence of the virus, which has claimed more than 20,000 lives in British hospitals alone.

James Morris, managing director at 30-employee firm Trafalgar Marquees in West Sussex, is also drawing up cash flow forecasts to decide whether he will ramp up operations if the lockdown starts to lift. Morris has furloughed 60% of his workforce as events he was providing marquees for -- among them a food festival and a cycle race -- have been canceled.

“At what point do we bring people back?” Morris said, citing costs such as staff, rent, lighting and heating that he’ll have to pay when he increases capacity. “We have to be realistic about at what levels of work it is profitable.”

The government has drawn up packages to keep businesses afloat, such as the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme and the job support program. These may need to be extended beyond the end of the lockdown because the economy will be slow to restart, said Craig Beaumont, director of external affairs at the Federation of Small Businesses.

Reluctant Retailers

“You’ve got to think about stimulus,” he said. “The risk is the government pulls back on its support, because it’s spent so much money, but that would be the wrong time to do it.”

A few companies have already decided to get back to business. Taylor Wimpey Plc, one of the U.K.’s biggest homebuilders, said Wednesday it will start work on its construction sites on April 27, while luxury automaker Aston Martin will restart production in May.

What a Return to Work Will Look Like in Offices Around the World

But others have expressed reluctance. Associated British Foods Plc, the owner of Primark, has asked for advance notice of lockdown measures being lifted so it can prepare its clothing stores for social distancing. It has also warned shareholders sales may be lower because fewer customers will be allowed in a shop at any one time.

Getting transport services back to normal to allow commuters to return to work will be another challenge for Johnson. The Transport Salaried Staff Association, a labor union representing transport workers, said its top priority would be safety, “regardless of when the lockdown is lifted.”

“We are seeking to agree a set of principles with the rail industry to ensure that our members and our passengers are fully protected when services are ramped up,” the TSSA said in a statement.

Keeping employees safe in work is another area where Johnson will face pressure. Though government advice may shift to encourage people to go back to work, that will only become a reality if employees and labor unions are happy that conditions are safe.

“It can’t be a case of business as usual,” said Kevin Rowan, head of health and safety at the Trades Union Congress. “All employers must be able to provide clear assurances that their workplaces are safe.”

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.