(Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Hilary has spun up in the Pacific off Mexico’s coast, threatening to pummel Southern California and unleash flooding across the Southwest early next week.
Hilary is moving west-northwest about 470 miles (756 kilometers) from Manzanillo, Mexico, with top winds of 40 miles per hour, the US National Hurricane Center said in an 11 a.m. New York time advisory. The five-day track for the storm potentially carries it into Southern California as a post-tropical system by Monday, although forecasts that far out may be inaccurate.
“Hilary has the potential to bring impacts to the Baja California Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United States this weekend,” according to an analysis by Samantha Camposano and Lisa Bucci, forecasters at the center. “Although it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of rainfall and wind impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Hilary.”
Tropical systems rarely strike Southern California. The last one was Tropical Storm Nora in 1997, which hit Mexico’s Baja California before moving north, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane forecast. Hurricane Kay in 2022 didn’t make landfall in the Golden State but it did bring 100 mph winds to San Diego County.
Regardless of whether Hilary can make it to California, it will set the stage for a plumes of moisture streaming north that could lead to heavy rain and flooding starting Saturday, said Alyson Hoegg, a meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc. A high-pressure ridge in the central US and low pressure in California will funnel rain into the region, she said.
“Flooding is the main concern,” Hoegg said.
Hilary is forecast to strengthen into a Category 3 major hurricane, with winds of at least 111 mph, on Friday before weakening as it approaches northern Mexico or Southern California.
(Updates forecast in fifth paragraph)
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