One FX strategist expects the Canadian dollar to go as low as 69 cents U.S., as the interest rate gap between the Bank of Canada and U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to continue to widen.
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to lower its key policy rate on Wednesday, and some economists have predicted a 50-basis point cut. Shaun Osborne, managing director and chief FX strategist at Scotiabank, said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg Tuesday that employment data released last week has provided Canada’s central bank with “enough reason” to lower borrowing costs by 50 basis points.
If the Bank of Canada moves to cut by that amount, the interest rate gap would climb to 125 basis points relative to the Fed.
“It’s a big rate disadvantage for the Canadian dollar (and a) big rate advantage generally for the U.S. dollar. And that’s been the story of the U.S. dollar’s performance pretty much since September, stronger growth and a big revision to Fed rate cut expectations,” Osborne said.
He added that sizeable rate cuts are still expected in Canada, but historically the rate differential to the U.S. has typically been around “plus (or) minus 75 basis points pretty consistently.”
“We’ve kind of crept up to 100 basis points. Now we’ve been above that, on occasion, just because of the difference in timings between the bank policy meetings than the Fed policy meetings,” Osborne said.
“But a 50-basis point cut tomorrow and expectations of only a 25-basis point cut from the Fed next week, that solidifies that 125-basis point differential I think.”
With a 50-basis point rate cut tomorrow, Osborne said the Bank will have made “pretty good progress” moving toward neutral. He added the Fed will likely start to catch up next year by lowering borrowing costs, but it will be a slow process.
Until that time, Osborne said the Canadian dollar will be impacted, saying it could go as low as 69 cents U.S.
“Now our forecast is probably centered on that 69-cent area with the risk of an overshoot to that point. Given the challenges that we’re going to have in Canada next year, we know tariffs are coming in some form probably not 25 per cent, hopefully. But we know there’s going to be some trade friction,” he said.
The Canadian dollar was trading 71 cents U.S. late Tuesday morning.