Keith Richards, president and chief portfolio manager, ValueTrend Wealth Management
FOCUS: Technical analysis
Top Picks: Ford Motor, BMO EW Glbl Base Metals ETF, VanEck Oil services ETF
MARKET OUTLOOK:
While we still have near-term concerns surrounding seasonal market volatility into September, we do feel there’s a probable strong market after September. Perhaps the early August selloff is all we get. We did add a bit to our positions on that correction, but it seems to us that the pullback may have rebounded too quickly. As such, we are still holding some cash. Either way, we expect to be fully invested in the coming weeks. This isn’t a prediction of another leg down, as the tape is the tape. Below are a few things to consider.
- Seasonal tendencies for stock markets are bearish until October, bullish thereafter.
- A presidential election cycle puts extra fuel into an October rally as the U.S. November election nears.
- Despite any near-termed corrections, a longer termed bull/bear cycle on the SPX and NASDAQ suggests we have one to two years left in the bull market.
- Any volatility over the coming month is likely a buying opportunity, given the strong potential upside based on longer-term market trends.
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TOP PICKS:
Ford Motor (F NYSE)
Aggressive platform, may buy in our “regular” platform soon.
BMO EW Glbl Base Metals ETF (ZMT TSX)
We have a longer termed cyclical view for base metals but in the near-term, the pullback probably offers a good entry point.
VanEck Oil services ETF (OIH NYSEARCA)
Bottom of a trading range. The sector is overlooked versus the producers – which may offer a good value proposition. And if that long consolidation breaks out—it could be exciting.
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| F NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| ZMT TSX | Y | Y | Y |
| OIH NYSEARCA | Y | Y | Y |
PAST PICKS: JULY 4, 2024
BMO Emerging Markets ETF (ZEM TSX)
- Then: $21.42
- Now: $21.27
- Return:0%
- Total Return: 0%
Global X High Interest Savings ETF (CASH TSX)
- Then: $50.03
- Now: $50.15
- Yield:4.67%
- Total Return: 0.62%
Cameco (CCO TSX)
- Then: $68.50
- Now: $59.29
- Return:-13%
- Total Return: -13%
Total Return Average: -4%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| ZEM TSX | Y | Y | Y |
| CASH | Y | Y | Y |
| CCO TSX | Y | Y | Y |