(Bloomberg) -- The UK’s wind turbines have overtaken gas plants for the first time as the number one source of electricity, though they’re still a long way from ambitious targets for a clean grid by 2030.
Wind represented 29% of the country’s generation mix last year, with gas shrinking to just a quarter, according to data from the National Energy System Operator.
The UK plans a huge buildout of wind power in the coming years to more than triple today’s offshore capacity in the hope that cheap renewables will provide the vast majority of generation at the start of the next decade. The idea is both to cut emissions and lower bills for consumers.
The last time gas made up such a small share of generation in the country was in 2013, when coal dominated the system and renewable power was operating at much lower levels. The NESO data includes storage and electricity imports.
But, despite the milestone, more wind and less gas doesn’t necessarily lead to lower power prices. Government plans for the country’s energy future include a relatively stable amount of gas capacity, with the expectation that it will be needed a lot less of the time. The intermittent nature of wind, which is now dominating the grid, means that this backup supply is needed.
This week, UK wind generation is forecast to swing wildly, dropping from about 15 gigawatts to 3 gigawatts according to Bloomberg models. With plunging temperatures boosting heating demand in the coming days, that could lead to soaring power prices.
Running gas plants for less time but still needing them as a backup can sometimes lead to more expensive power prices.
Government plans would see offshore wind capacity increasing more than threefold to as much as 50 gigawatts by 2030. This is already increasingly leading to grid congestion, with windier areas curtailing generation because power can’t be transported to the areas that need it most.
An ongoing review of the electricity market could split the UK into different zones, each with a separate price, reflecting the balance of supply and demand and how much space there is on the grid. This review is expected to conclude early in 2025.
Another change last year was that imports of electricity overtook nuclear generation as the third-largest source of power.
The UK has turned to imports from Europe after closing its final coal plant earlier this year. However, the government also promised to reduce bills for consumers, in part by relying less on purchases from abroad and more on domestic renewable sources.
(Updates with wind forecast in sixth paragraph. A previous version of story corrected reference to UK closing final coal plant instead of gas plant.)
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