(Bloomberg) -- Europe is set for a colder-than-usual January, possibly with weaker wind levels, boosting demand for natural gas just as the continent confronts the end of a Ukraine-Russia pipeline transit agreement this week.
A sharp drop in temperatures is expected at the start of January for most of the UK, France, Germany and the Nordics, and the cold snap will persist over the course of the month, according to forecaster Maxar Technologies Inc. Snow is expected in the UK, data from the Met Office show, with weather warnings in place for the beginning of the month.
A combination of cold weather and weak winds has already pushed Europe to use up more of its gas reserves than normal for this time of year, with levels below 75%. A fluctuation of atmospheric pressure known as the North Atlantic Oscillation may cause these conditions to persist into February — when it’s all but certain that no Russian gas will be flowing through Ukraine.
“Relevant sub-seasonal pattern influences like the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in early January would point to the risk for lower-than-normal wind generation in central Europe, southern Scandinavia and the UK,” said Matthew Dross, a meteorologist at Maxar.
In Paris, temperatures could dip as low as -1C (30F) on average at the start of January, 6C below the normal level, according to data from Weather Services International. That’s set to push heating demand about 50% above usual levels. Weather models show some chance for milder spells after this cold snap.
Wind levels plummeted across Europe in November, sending electricity prices soaring as wind farms stopped generating large amounts of the region’s power. Although gusts will be stronger than those seen this winter, so far there is a risk that January’s wind levels will be below the long-term averages, according to forecasters. And so will temperatures.
“Higher pressure dominates the vicinity of Greenland and there is an increased risk for cold shots to affect Northern and Central Europe,” said Olivia Birch, a meteorologist at Atmospheric G2. “Northern and Central Europe may be on the cooler side of normal through much of January, which will also be dependent on the strength of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex.”
Meanwhile, some parts of Europe will buck the trend, including in Italy, Spain and Greece. These areas will see temperatures close to, or above long term averages, according to Maxar.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which determines if the planet’s weather falls into an El Niño or La Niña pattern, is currently fairly neutral. Though there is a chance that a weak La Niña could develop from January to March, in theory bringing colder temperatures, it probably won’t be a major factor that would make matters worse.
“With only a weak La Niña, impacts to Europe should be minimal,” said Adam Doughty, senior meteorologist at forecaster AccuWeather Inc.
(Updates Paris forecast in paragraph 5 and adds heating demand.)
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