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Commodities

China’s Falling Corn Imports Show Hit to Consumer Confidence

(USDA forecasts (by marketing yea)

(Bloomberg) -- China’s corn imports are expected to total just 14 million tons in the current season, less than half of their peak during a buying spree a few years ago, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

The agency trimmed its estimate by 2 million tons for the 2024-25 year through September in a report released Tuesday, citing lower purchases from Brazil. It offers fresh evidence of how China’s economic slowdown and property crisis has battered consumer confidence. Corn is mainly used as animal feed in the country, and demand growth has suffered as cost-conscious households cut back on meat and restaurant outings. 

Beijing asked traders to buy less foreign grain earlier this year, part of an effort to shield local farmers and support domestic prices, which are near the lowest in more than four years. The USDA is also forecasting China’s corn crop will be at a record high this season, despite extreme weather, curbing the need for imports. 

China, which satisfies most of its corn consumption domestically, emerged as a heavyweight in global trading of the grain a few years ago as its hog herd recovered from a widespread disease outbreak and local harvests faltered. That sent imports spiraling higher, providing a boon to farmers from Ukraine to Brazil and the US.

While its corn purchases are still robust, this season’s outlook compares to a peak of more than 29 million tons in 2020-21 and puts Chinese imports behind Mexico, the European Union and Japan. USDA also lowered the outlook for the country’s purchases of wheat and barley.

On the Wire

China is set to begin its annual economic work meeting on Wednesday to map out policies for next year, with top leaders hinting at more forceful stimulus amid the threat of a potential trade war with the US.

China’s oil demand may peak in 2025, five years earlier than expected, as the shift away from gasoline and diesel accelerates, according to a report from the nation’s largest energy producer. 

An OPEC for China’s solar equipment producers isn’t going to work as technological advantages can quickly become obsolete, writes Bloomberg Opinion’s David Fickling.

This Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing unless noted.)

Wednesday, Dec. 11:

  • Chinese govt’s Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing, day 1
  • Intl Energy Executive Forum on the energy transition, Beijing, day 3
  • CCTD’s weekly online briefing on Chinese coal, 15:00

Thursday, Dec. 12:

  • Chinese govt’s Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing, day 2

Friday, Dec. 13:

  • China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
  • Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, ~15:00

--With assistance from Hallie Gu.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.