(Bloomberg) -- China’s beleaguered solar industry, wracked by a glut and fierce price war, is already on the road to recovery, according to one of the country’s largest panel manufacturers.
“We’re at a turning point,” Li Zhenguo, founder and president of Longi Green Energy Technology Co., said in an interview. “It will take two to three quarters for the product price to rise above cost level, and we already saw bidding prices rise somewhat from last month.”
Massive overcapacity in China’s world-leading solar industry has forced some firms into bankruptcy or restructuring and resulted in big losses at major manufacturers. Longi, which used to be the country’s biggest panel producer before the current crisis, has posted four straight quarterly losses and resorted to slashing staff and costs.
The China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the country’s main solar industry body, called in October for rational pricing and urged companies to be more disciplined in bidding for projects. The group also said struggling manufacturers should exit the market as soon as possible.
“We don’t think the current situation is sustainable for the sector, and the whole industry is also doing a lot of soul-searching on why the situation has happened,” Li said from the Peruvian capital of Lima, where he was attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. The sector should take the initiative to “limit capacity a little to let the price return to a rational level,” he said.
Major Chinese manufacturers have been investing in and promoting new solar technologies in an attempt to stand out from their competitors in the weak market. Longi is betting on back-contact, or BC, cells, while most of its rivals are focusing on N-type cells.
Trump Impact
The company would lift its BC capacity to 50 gigawatts by the close of 2025 from 10 gigawatts at the end of this year, and would then double that in another two years, Li said. Longi was looking to ship 25 to 30 gigawatts of BC cells next year, he said.
Chinese solar firms already face 25% tariffs in the US, which the White House is planning to double, but could be hit with even higher levies if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his pledge for a 60% import tax on all Chinese goods. Longi, which owns 49% of a solar plant in Ohio, could also be vulnerable to any changes to the Inflation Reduction Act or any crackdown on Chinese investment.
“Regarding the future policy stance of the US, uncertainty is expected,” Li said. “It’s hard to predict and we need to monitor the developments.”
(Updates with more details and comments from Li from sixth paragraph.)
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