(Bloomberg) -- With a population of just 2.6 million and one of the smallest economies in Europe, Moldova barely registers by most European Union metrics. Yet the small former Soviet republic wedged between EU member Romania and war-ravaged Ukraine has drawn outsized attention from the continent’s powerful democracies and Vladimir Putin’s Russia. After decades under the Kremlin’s influence, Moldova started a concerted shift toward the EU in 2020. That has touched a nerve with pro-Russian elements looking to pull it back into Moscow’s sphere of influence.
What’s going on with Moldova, Russia and the EU?
In a move aimed at loosening the Kremlin’s influence over the country, Moldova’s pro-European government held a referendum on EU membership on Oct. 20, opening a path for joining the bloc. Moldovans voted yes by a margin of just 50.4%, amending the country’s Constitution to enshrine the EU accession goal. Moldova said Russia spent about €100 million ($109 million) to try to disrupt the referendum, and a presidential election held at the same time. Moscow denied the allegations of meddling and called on Moldova’s government to present evidence of it happening.
In a high-stakes runoff held two weeks after the referendum, pro-EU President Maia Sandu won a second term as head of state against pro-Russia politician and former top prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglo. Sandu secured over 55% of the vote, with help from the country’s large diaspora, despite what Moldovan authorities called “massive Russian interference” in the election at home.
“For months, Russia sought to undermine Moldova’s democratic institutions and election processes,” US President Joe Biden said in a statement following the presidential vote. “But Russia failed.”
What’s the history?
Moldova was a republic in the Soviet Union, and its people forged deep societal ties with Russia that continue to this day. Most of Moldova’s population speaks both Romanian, the official language, and Russian. The connection is especially strong in two of Moldova’s regions: the Russia-controlled enclave of Transnistria and the autonomous region of Gagauzia, which is led by figures sympathetic to Moscow.
Over the past three decades, Moldova has pivoted between the EU and Russia as different politicians tried to sway voters with promises of better living conditions in a country that ranks among the poorest in Europe.
Moldova has made major progress toward EU integration, receiving candidate status in 2022 and officially starting accession talks in 2024. The shift produced results. Moldova now sends more than 90% of its exports to the EU — mostly agricultural products. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in October that the EU would allocate a record €1.8 billion over the next three years to support the country’s plan to join the bloc.
Why is Moldova’s fate important to European security?
Moldova is at a strategic crossroads, and a potential pro-Russian government could extend Putin’s influence beyond parts of Ukraine to the border with Romania.
Putin has called the collapse of the Soviet Union the “greatest political catastrophe of the century.” He has opposed moves by former Soviet republics and allies to join the EU and the NATO military alliance, and has demonstrated a determination to rebuild Moscow’s influence in the former Soviet space.
For the EU, bringing Moldova into the fold would send a message that the bloc remains a successful and expanding economic alliance, in a rebuke to European far-right nationalist forces that have been gaining in popularity. For now, Sandu’s re-election ensures the country remains a staunch EU ally in a volatile region.
What is Russia’s interest in Transnistria?
Transnistria, home to roughly 400,000 people, is one of a number of regions in former Soviet republics where Russia holds sway, with others including Crimea and the Donetsk and Luhansk areas of Ukraine and the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia.
Transnistria’s self-proclaimed leaders declared independence from Moldova in 1990. For now, no United Nations member has recognized the claim to statehood, including Russia. It has had troops in the Russia-speaking enclave since the early 1990s, saying their main tasks are peacekeeping and protecting ammunition depots. Moldova’s government has demanded that the troops leave, saying their presence is an unlawful breach of its sovereignty.
Transnistria gives Putin a measure of economic leverage over Moldova: While Moldova has ended its reliance on Russian gas with the help of EU countries including neighboring Romania, it depends on Transnistria for about 90% of its electricity.
How else is Moldova responding to the challenge from Russia?
President Sandu has vowed to redouble the fight against corruption and speed up judicial reforms to the Moldovan state in the face of foreign interference. If successful, the moves would also bolster Moldova’s EU accession prospects as to join the bloc it needs to prove it has stable institutions and can guarantee democracy and the rule of law.
The EU and the US are also helping Moldova bolster its cybersecurity to ward off pro-Russian hackers and sanctioning pro-Russian oligarchs and politicians.
--With assistance from Lina Grau.
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