(Bloomberg) -- South African farmers will barely increase the land allocated to plant corn for next year’s crop and the season may be late, exacerbating a shortage after the harvest slumped a quarter to a five-year low this year.
Commercial growers plans to plant 2.64 million hectares (6.5 million acres) of land in the 2024-25 season, 0.15% more than in 2023-24, the country’s Crop Estimates Committee said in its forecast for intentions to plant summer crops on Tuesday.
“The good rains of the past few weeks have been scattered and planting hasn’t gained momentum in any meaningful way across the country,” Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa said in a post on X before their release. “This has raised fears in the grains markets about yet another tough season, in part contributing to the surge in maize prices” that has also been driven by tight supplies due to this year’s bad crop, he said, using the local term for corn.
The crop harvested this year in South Africa, the continent’s biggest producer of the grain, fell by 23% from 2023 as the El Niño weather phenomenon scorched fields with unseasonably dry and hot weather.
Read: South Africa Corn-Export Forecast Raised to 1.9 Million Tons
While the expected La Nina weather phenomenon, which usually causes above-normal rainfall in the country and its neighbors, could make for a better harvest in 2025, it’s likely to be a late season, Sihlobo said.
White corn for December delivery closed trade at 5,792 rand ($327) per ton on Tuesday in Johannesburg, while yellow corn traded at 4,720 rand. White corn has gained 65% over the past year and the yellow variety has risen 22%.
At about 1.58 million hectares in 2025, the area under white corn, a staple food, is expected to be 1.5% bigger than this year, according to the forecast that is based on a survey conducted by Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development that reflects the position as at the middle of October.
Plantings of yellow corn, generally used for animal feed, is estimated to fall by 1.8%. The land allocated to soy, sunflower seed, dry beans and sorghum will increase, while less land will be given over to peanuts.
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