(Bloomberg) -- The world is on course to miss a target for cutting emissions this decade by an overwhelming amount, new UN analysis shows, meaning more dangerous global warming is likely.
Total emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere in 2030 will only be 2.6% lower than in 2019, according to the latest climate plans put forward by countries, a synthesis compiled by UN Climate Change said Monday. To be consistent with a goal for a 1.5C warming limit, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that emissions would have to fall by 43% over the same time period.
The best estimate of where temperatures will peak this century, based off the national climate plans, is between 2.1C-2.8C, the institution said. Still there’s a possibility that emissions could peak this decade.
“Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception,” said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change. “Every fraction of a degree matters, as climate disasters get rapidly worse.”
The landmark Paris Agreement in 2015 set a goal to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and ideally to 1.5C.
UN Climate Change said the world is on course this decade to use up almost 90% of its remaining carbon budget — a calculation of how much can still be emitted while giving half a chance of keeping global warming below 1.5C. After 2030, around 70 gigatons of CO2 would be left in the budget, roughly equivalent to two years of emissions based on current levels.
The report is the latest in a dire series of outlooks for global warming, with another UN body saying last week that the world was on course for warming of up to 3.1C, which would bring into play a number of climate tipping points that would accelerate the prevalence of extreme weather events.
World leaders will meet in Baku, Azerbaijan in two weeks time for the COP29 climate summit to focus on how to scale up climate finance for developing countries to help them with the transition and cope with the worst impacts of climate change. Yet the question of what more can be done to slash emissions beyond last year’s deal to transition away from fossil fuels will receive less focus.
Countries are required to come forward with fresh climate plans aligned with the 1.5C goal before the COP30 summit in Brazil next year.
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