Russia Wheat Crop Seen Falling for Third Year on Dry Weather

(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s wheat production is seen shrinking for a third year after a lack of rain has delayed plantings in the world’s top exporter.

Wheat production in 2025 is expected to total 80.1 million tons, according to consultancy SovEcon. That would make it the smallest harvest since the 2021-22 season, putting pressure on already tight global stockpiles.

Bumper crops from the country helped ease supply concerns in recent years after other key growing regions, such as the US and Europe, saw poor production. The dominance of cheap Russian crops in the market helped to lower prices from record highs in 2022 and continues to weigh on global futures markets.

Dry weather, however, has significantly delayed planting efforts, which is expected to lower both the cultivated area and reduce crop yields in the upcoming season.

Although the production forecast comes nine months before crops will be harvested, adverse conditions could continue to strain development. Still, consultancy IKAR sees production between 81 million and 85 million tons after recent rains, Interfax reported on Tuesday.

“The poor condition of winter wheat raises concerns about an increased risk of winter kill,” wrote Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon.

(Updates with details in paragraph 5. An earlier version of this story was corrected to reflect that Russia is a top export of wheat and not top grower)