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Ivory Coast Raises 2024-25 Cocoa Forecast on New Pod Count

A farmer cuts a cocoa pod to collect the beans inside on a farm in Azaguie, Ivory Coast, on Friday, Nov. 18, 2022. As favorable weather in Ivory Coast boosts the quality of the country’s cocoa bean harvest, poor road access means some farmers in the world’s top supplier of the chocolate-making ingredient are getting paid below the farm-gate rate for their crop. Photographer: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Bloomberg (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- Ivory Coast has raised its cocoa harvest forecast for 2024-2025 by as much as 10% following a fresh counting of pods last month.

The world’s top producer of the chocolate-making ingredient will harvest between 2.1 million tons and 2.2 million tons in the season that started in October, according to people familiar with the data, who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the matter. 

In June output was seen at 2 million tons, a rebound after bad weather and disease curbed production to 1.8 million tons in 2023-2024, according to International Cocoa Organization estimates.

Industry regulator Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao concluded its latest pod count before October, the people said. The optimism stems from favorable weather for the crop through September 2025.

A spokeswoman for the CCC didn’t respond to telephone calls or a text message seeking comment.

Meanwhile, heavy rains have lashed Ivory Coast over the last two weeks. While that’s disrupting cocoa harvesting and transportation in the short-term, it could ultimately benefit output.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.