(Bloomberg) -- New York City and the East Coast will likely have a soggy winter as warmer weather takes hold from California to Florida, and a deep chill settles across the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Plains.
The eastern Great Lakes are forecast to be mild, with more uncertainty for Chicago and the Upper Midwest, the US Climate Prediction Center said in its seasonal forecast on Thursday.
Currently, the five lakes are quite warm, suggesting they will be slow to ice over and more apt to fuel heavy deluges of snow in places like Buffalo, said Jon Gottschalck, operational prediction branch chief at the prediction center.
“Lake effect could be a real issue this year in November and December,” Gottschalck said in a media briefing.
Forecasters are expecting drier conditions from Southern California to North Carolina, which could lead to widespread drought across the Southwest and as far east as Alabama. Such a scenario would put stress on the Colorado River, a vital source of drinking water in Arizona, parts of California and across the region, said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead, at prediction center.
However, abundant rain and snow across the Midwest are seen helping to alleviate low water levels on the Mississippi and Ohio rivers.
Winter can have tremendous human and financial impacts across the US. The season has the largest impact on domestic energy demand, so a forecast for widespread cold would mean more fuel being burned. In addition, widespread snowstorms can be deadly and disrupt transportation and supply chains.
Cold and ice also impact retail sales as seasonal shopping reaches a peak in late December. On top of this, drought caused by a dearth of winter rain and snow stresses the agriculture sector and municipal water supplies in many regions.
For snow lovers in the large cities in the Northeast, there is a high likelihood winter storm tracks will be further inland, bringing more rain to New York City, Washington, Boston and the rest of the Interstate-95 corridor.
Northern New England’s ski industry may be in for more snow, however, Gottschalck said. At the same time, overall conditions point to a lower likelihood of large-scale outbreaks of the so-called polar vortex.
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