(Bloomberg) -- The fight for the rural vote is heating up.
After four decades of Democrats losing ground to Republicans across the US heartland, Kamala Harris is now trying to appeal to some of Donald Trump’s loyal farming base. The Democratic strategy includes a new rural outreach director and a series of ads featuring growers pledging to vote for her in the swing states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Most battleground states still have a relatively large rural population, so securing support from farming communities will be key. Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, have recently been stumping in these regions, touting rural health care, as well as the billions promised by President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and other federal programs to bring back manufacturing.
“They both understand that rural voters are the foundation of our country, and they want rural voters to know that they have a home in their campaign,” said Matt Hildreth, who joined the Harris campaign last month to lead rural engagement. “We’ve had organizers and offices in these areas for the better part of a year.”
It won’t be easy, though — the overall backing of Democrats in rural areas across local, state and federal elections has steadily declined since 1980, according to The Rural Voter by Nicholas Jacobs and Daniel Shea. While Trump’s trade war with China hurt farmers, he provided $28 billion to soften the blow and his lead in rural areas widened in 2020.
“Trump stood up to China, delivered fairer trade deals, supported rural infrastructure,” said Republican National Committee spokeswoman Anna Kelly. “Rural voters are tired of being failed by Democrats, and they are lining up to support President Trump.”
Gain Ground
Still, Democrats think they can gain some ground. The support for Harris has been increasing in several swing states since she rose to the top of the ticket. Walz could also help her — after all, he grew up in rural Nebraska and is currently governor of Minnesota, the top state for sugar beets and the No. 2 for hogs.
“Vice President Harris, she’s really attractive to folks who live in cities,” said Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson. “That’s where I think the pick of Governor Walz was very strategic and very mindful of the balance of a place like Wisconsin.”
To win the rural vote, Harris is spending big. As part of a $370 million media blitz, her campaign last week launched a series of ads, some of which will air nationally during top-rated TV shows like ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars” and CBS’s “American Music Awards,” as well as on networks including Fox News Channel.
One features Wisconsin dairy farmer Tina Hinchley talking about how a recurring brain tumor would have killed her if not for a landmark health care law enacted under former Democratic President Barack Obama. Another shows Pennsylvania farmers Bob and Kristina Lange, who say they voted for Trump and will now support Harris. They cite the Jan. 6 insurrection and divisive policies for their change of heart.
Pennsylvania is so key that the Harris campaign has nearly 400 staff on the ground, including 16 offices in rural counties that Trump carried by double digits in 2020. Harris and Walz have also traveled to Luzerne, Cambria, Lancaster, and Fayette counties in recent weeks.
Trump, who last month held a farmer and manufacturer round-table in Pennsylvania last month, will visit Scranton and Reading on Wednesday.
“Make no mistake, you cannot win Pennsylvania if you’re not competitive in these rural communities,” Josh Shapiro, the state’s governor, said outside an event during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August. “They’ve got to continue to make inroads there.”
Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania, while Harris has a less than 1% lead over her Republican rival in Wisconsin, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages as of Tuesday.
But Trump is working to shore up support as well. The former president and his running mate JD Vance have recently traveled to places like Prairie du Chien, Wisconsin, and Valdosta, Georgia, to meet rural voters.
In strongholds like Juneau, a town in a Wisconsin county that he won by a wide margin in 2016 and 2020, part of Trump’s message was directed at farmers. He stressed that under Biden’s watch the state that’s the country’s second-largest milk producer lost 455 dairy farms.
In deep blue Dane County, Wisconsin, Trump reiterated plans to slap tariffs on Deere & Co. if the tractor giant moves production to Mexico. He also garnered support from Grant Grinstead, a dairy farmer who was the first person to speak at the rally.
“Our inputs from feed to seed, fertilizer, fuel, machinery and labor costs have just gone out of hand,” Grinstead said. “It’s challenging times and we need your help, sir.”
Biofuels Boom
Democrats are turning Trump’s threat to repeal the IRA into a talking point. Biden’s landmark climate legislation is expected to give a boost to corn and soybean growers, with more crops set to be used to make renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel.
“We are confident Vice President Harris shares President Biden’s vision for expanded use of low-carbon renewable fuels and believe she would seek to build on Biden’s successful clean fuels legacy,” Geoff Cooper, president of the non-partisan Renewable Fuels Association, said earlier this year, shortly after Biden stepped aside.
There are also concerns about how Trump would handle China. The former president has accused President Xi Jiping of failing to meet requirements of the Phase One trade deal, and pledged to use the full force of tariffs against the world’s largest importer of commodities including soybeans.
“The Republican side has been more hawkish on China and looks to probably — at least from statements made by both Trump and Vance — put tariffs in China, which could certainly put a damper on agricultural exports, which California relies on quite a bit,” said Cannon Michael, chief executive officer of Bowles Farming Co., which grows crops including cotton and tomatoes in Los Banos, California.
Final Stretch
Democrats still face an uphill battle with farming communities ahead of Nov. 5. Trump, who won in 2016 with 59% of the rural vote, increased that lead to 65% in 2020, according to Pew Research Center. Still, he lost the race as Biden found strength in cities and suburbs.
“Democrats have had real problems in rural America,” John Anzalone, a pollster for Biden during his 2020 presidential campaign, said on a podcast last month. “Tim Walz helps us have a rural strategy so we aren’t losing 75%-25%. Even if we are just losing 70%-30%, it’s a big deal.”
--With assistance from Ilena Peng, Michael Hirtzer and Gerson Freitas Jr..
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