(Bloomberg) -- India’s northern state of Haryana holds local elections Saturday, testing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s support among farmers angered by the government’s policies over crop prices.
About 20 million registered voters will head to the polls to elect candidates for 90 seats in the local assembly. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party has governed the state for 10 years, winning 40 seats in the last election in 2019 — although some analysts and farmer groups say the BJP is now at risk of losing control of the state legislature.
Haryana — although relatively small in both population and economic size — is the first state from the Hindi-speaking belt of the country, where the BJP traditionally holds sway, to go to the polls since the party’s shock national election result in June. A loss in Haryana would be another blow to Modi and put his party on the backfoot as two other crucial state elections loom in coming months, in Maharashtra and Jharkand.
In Haryana, where about 60% of rural households work in agriculture, resentment is high over the government’s stance toward farmers’ demands. Protests by tens of thousands of farmers from Haryana, Punjab and elsewhere broke out in February this year as they pushed for guaranteed minimum prices for some crops and debt relief. The government blocked the farmers from marching on the capital New Delhi at the time, and haven’t resolved the matter eight months later.
“We have to teach the BJP a lesson,” said Abhimanyu Kohar, a convener of the Indian Farmer Youth Union, which helped to organize the protests. “You can suppress protesters through force but then the anger also increases multi-fold.” He added that there’s a “wave against the BJP among the people here“ and they will have to suffer its consequences on October 8,” when results are announced.
Tucked next to the national capital, Haryana has some of the country’s most conservative and rural societies. It’s also home to the region’s IT and auto hub, Gurugram.
For Modi and his party, Haryana is a consequential state to retain after already losing elections in two surrounding states and the national capital. While a loss in Haryana may not impact the party at the national level, it would signal a shift in voter sentiment, according to Jyoti Mishra, a research assistant at the Centre for the Study of Developing Studies.
“It could embolden opposition parties, offering them momentum and serving as a barometer for shaping their strategies in other states,” Mishra said.
The BJP’s main competition is the Indian National Congress, whose key leader Rahul Gandhi has hammered the BJP for failing to create enough jobs in Haryana, especially for the young. Official labor data — which economists say under-reports joblessness — puts Haryana’s unemployment rate at 6.1%, double the national average of 3.2%.
“Narendra Modi and his government have made Haryana the center of unemployment,” Gandhi said at an election rally earlier this week. “We do not want a state like this.”
Modi has referred to unemployment only fleetingly on the campaign trail. He’s mainly attacked the Congress party for playing up caste identity, and criticized it for alleged corruption and nepotism.
However, for voters, jobs and farmers’ distress may be the deciding factors at the ballot box.
“Haryana faces a high unemployment rate, with many people, particularly the youth, stuck in unstable contract jobs instead of secure, permanent employment,” said Mishra.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.