(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Keir Starmer is being privately warned by his own ministers not to break his pro-growth pledge just three months after sweeping to power in the UK on a commitment made in February that Labour would be “the party of business,” with wealth creation a priority.
Starmer made his promise in a speech in February to some 500 executives as he sought to underscore how Labour had changed since the days of his left-wing predecessor Jeremy Corbyn. It built on years of warm rhetoric and smoked salmon breakfasts in opposition as he and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves sought to win back the support of corporate Britain.
But after Labour’s annual conference last month, and just nine days out from a major international investment summit in London, some in the party are sounding the alarm that the premier risks reversing that progress. Ministers, lawmakers and aides said they were nervous that the government’s messaging and policies since winning power are eroding business and investor confidence. They requested anonymity while airing their concerns.
Their fears stem from a fall in economic sentiment attributed to dire warnings by Starmer and Reeves about a £22 billion ($29 billion) hole in the public finances, speculation that they’re considering tax rises on businesses and wealth at the Oct. 30 budget, and uncertainty surrounding a planned workers’ rights package.
The central worry among Labour figures, typically on the party’s right, is that the duo have failed to clearly differentiate between what they’ve called a “shocking” fiscal inheritance from the previous Conservative government, and the outlook for the wider economy. Starmer and Reeves need to quickly recalibrate their messaging or risk being accused of talking down the country and being responsible for a hit to growth and investment, a senior minister said.
There are already warning signs, with measures of consumer and corporate sentiment falling and gross domestic product stagnating.
“There has been a sharp drop in business confidence, with firms specifically citing the overarching doom and gloom messaging of the government and specific tax changes potentially tilted at business,” Anna Leach, Chief Economist at the Institute of Directors, told Bloomberg.
Starmer’s keynote speech at the Labour conference in Liverpool, billed as an effort to shift to a more positive tone, was still too negative and failed to convince business leaders, one lobbyist who represents several blue-chip firms said. Reeves needs to stress her commitment to business hadn’t changed, despite Britain’s fiscal straitjacket, a Labour official said.
That’s a challenge ahead of a budget at which Reeves has signaled she’ll raise taxes, while ruling out lifting the Treasury’s three biggest earners. Potential revenue raisers include raising capital gains tax, and taxing employers’ pension contributions. But companies in Britain and abroad have strongly lobbied against increasing capital gains tax, warning it would put off investment, according to one Labour-supporting business figure.
Several executives said uncertainty over the chancellor’s budget plans is impacting confidence and causing investors to delay decisions. One described a vacuum of information, while another executive at a big drinks company said they’re worried Reeves will lift alcohol duty. A third employer — from the hospitality industry — said business feels let down and is scared of what’s coming down the road.
There are indications Reeves and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds are taking stock. They sought the views of big and smaller businesses in the wake of the first surveys showing declining sentiment. Labour has also taken on board criticism that a business day at its conference was a disappointment with limited access to ministers, people familiar with the matter said. They put that down to time time demands on senior ministers now Labour is in government and the unexpectedly early election, which caused personnel constraints.
Downing Street has an opportunity to assuage doubts in coming days, with some key legislation, its investment summit, and then the budget.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner’s promise to improve workplace conditions and “make work pay” will be crystallized in an employment rights bill on Thursday, people familiar with the matter said. Companies and some Labour lawmakers have viewed the legislation with suspicion, and will scrutinize whether and how much it involves new regulations or non-binding guidance.
One MP said proposals such as a so-called right-to-switch-off and ignore emails outside work hours were ridiculous — though Bloomberg has previously reported it won’t be in the bill, instead being implemented through a weaker code of practice.
Ministers had made a big effort to listen to businesses on the package, a government official said. Firms will likely breathe a sigh of relief when they see it, a person familiar with its contents said. Still, any perceived watering down of the proposals would upset Labour’s trade union supporters and MPs on the left of the party.
On Oct. 14, Starmer and Reeves will host an investment summit which will be a key moment for business relations. They intend to announce tens of billions of pounds of private investment into Britain, and name the sectors that will form the focus of its industrial strategy, according to people familiar with the matter. Those include financial services, defense, life sciences, technology, green energy, creative industries, advanced manufacturing and professional services.
Speaking to Bloomberg as the government announced a £22 billion investment in carbon capture sites on Friday, Reeves cited other recent UK investment announcements including one of £8 billion from Amazon Web Services, and £10 billion planned by Blackstone in Blyth. “We’ll be having more of that in the lead up to the investment summit,” she said.
The event will be a turning point that reminds businesses and investors why so many of them were positive about the prospect of a Labour government while the party was in opposition, a government official said.
“There have been signs in recent weeks that the government is listening and responding to business,” Leach of the IoD said. “This is still a new government and there is time to turn things around.”
--With assistance from Eamon Akil Farhat, Katherine Griffiths and Sabah Meddings.
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