(Bloomberg) -- Europe’s winter is forecast to be colder than last year — Germany’s third-mildest on record — as a weakened La Niña finally arrives, but it will still be warmer than longer-term averages.
France, the UK and Scandinavia will be the coldest parts of Europe during October, according to forecasters. By contrast, southeast Europe and the south of Spain are likely to remain warm, according to Maxar Technologies Inc. Athens, which was seared by heat waves and wildfires over the summer, could see temperatures reach 32C (90F) early in the month, according to Weather Services International.
A series of mild winters have helped Europe ride out an energy crisis as it transitions away from a dependence on Russian gas. Cold snaps could still put pressure on the region’s power grids, with La Niña typically bringing lower temperatures to Europe.
“The season is forecast to be warmer than the 10-year normal and 30-year normal, but colder than last year,” said Matthew Dross, a meteorologist at forecaster Maxar.
There is an 83% chance La Niña, a cyclical cooling of the Pacific, will take shape in November, December and January, up from 74% a month ago, the US Climate Prediction Center said last month. That phenomenon can lead to drought in California, Brazil and Argentina and rain in Indonesia and Australia, as well as bringing cooler weather to Europe.
“A weak/moderate La Niña event is forecast for the winter, which generally implies colder than normal temperatures across West Europe, so we do expect some colder spells heading towards November and December,” said Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist at forecaster Atmospheric G2.
La Niña
Pedrini added that relatively cool temperatures and above normal precipitation could bring further snowfall to parts of the continent. Last month, Storm Boris dumped 1.5 meters of snow in Austrian Alps.
La Niña could also curb wind speeds as winter begins, according to Maxar’s Dross, impacting on renewable energy generation.
Over the coming weeks, a series of storms off the Atlantic is likely to hit western and northern Europe every few days.
High pressure west of Africa will remain nearly stationary, forcing storms to track across the north Atlantic into western and northern Europe every few days through at least mid-October, according to Tyler Roys, a meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. Some tropical systems will be absorbed by these storms, leading to heavy rainfall.
“Some of those systems will likely recurve towards Europe, creating considerable uncertainty in weather models, besides potentially disrupting the general pattern,” said Atmospheric G2’s Pedrini.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
