(Bloomberg) -- Japan may still be grappling with the far-reaching consequences of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, but the politicians vying to be its next leader agree on one thing: the country needs more atomic power.
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party will choose its new chief next week, who will also become prime minister. Most of the nine hopefuls have signaled their support for the clean power source to boost energy security and slash emissions in the fossil-fuel dependent economy.
The near-unanimous support will be welcome news for a sector that’s faced years of uncertainty, and for Japan’s most powerful business lobby, whose chairman identified the nation’s energy issues as a priority in the leadership contest. It also reflects the global renaissance that nuclear power is enjoying, as countries look to it to ensure rising electricity demand can be met without further warming the planet.
“I used to believe we don’t need nuclear power,” said Kono Taro, who is running for LDP chief. “I changed my policy a little bit. We need to allow nuclear power plants to supply” AI and data centers amid forecasts for higher energy requirements, he said.
Boosting atomic power - which used to account for about a quarter of Japan’s power mix but is now down to just 6% - won’t be an easy task for the next leader. They will have to satisfy a public that is skeptical of its benefits, and face stringent safety standards imposed after the 2011 meltdown, which have slowed the restarting of idled reactors.
Time for a comeback?
Nuclear power remains politically sensitive in Japan, especially since the massive earthquake and tsunami that overwhelmed reactors at Fukushima Daiichi power plant in 2011, causing the worst accident since Chernobyl. The country is still struggling with the clean-up of radioactive material, a process expected to take years and cost 23 trillion yen ($161 billion).
While the energy source has gained popularity in recent years, a survey conducted by Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun in February showed 50% of respondents support the restart of idle reactors, while 35% are opposed. Of the country’s 33 remaining reactors, 21 are offline.
The effort to restart more reactors was dealt a blow this year when Japan’s nuclear watchdog said that the Tsuruga No. 2 reactor didn’t meet regulatory standards due to a potentially active earthquake fault line underneath. That means the reactor essentially can’t receive approval to restart.
Frontrunners in the LDP election, Shinjiro Koizumi and Sanae Takaichi, have argued the time may be right for a nuclear comeback. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent surge in commodity prices have renewed concerns over energy security in the resource-poor nation.
Koizumi, who was involved in setting stricter climate goals in 2021, has questioned the country’s persistent reliance on fossil fuels. The nation’s latest energy strategy aims for nuclear to make up 20% to 22% of the power mix by 2030.
“We pay 20 trillion yen ($140 billion) every year to overseas,” the former environment minister said. “We need to stop that as much as possible.”
Minister of Economic Security Takaichi, one of two women running for the top job, has also stressed Japan’s need to address its lack of energy independence. She proposed using next-generation technology including small modular reactors in the latter half of this decade, and nuclear fusion in 2030s.
Another candidate, seasoned politician Shigeru Ishiba, initially said Japan should reduce its dependence on atomic energy and focus on renewable sources like geothermal. He later clarified he would support reusing existing nuclear plants if safe.
The latest poll of public opinion, including of LDP members and lawmakers, suggests a three-way race between Koizumi, Takaichi, and Ishiba.
Alongside all the talk of nuclear power, environmentalists say Japan must also prioritize renewables if it’s to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Among its Group of Seven peers, Japan remains the most reliant on fossil fuels, which accounted for more than 70% of its total mix in 2022, while renewables made up a fifth.
“Driving forward with gas expansion and other fossil fuels risks undermining Japan’s international reputation, and also its economic growth,” said Susanne Wong, Asia program manager at advocacy group Oil Change International.
The leadership contest coincides with Japan’s review of its national energy strategy, which will outline what its power mix will look like beyond 2030, and a revision of its Nationally Determined Contribution to set 2035 emissions reduction targets under the Paris Agreement.
With the candidates largely aligned on nuclear power, its role is expected to be cemented in Japan’s future energy policy.
How the country chooses to power its $4-trillion economy is “as much a societal question as it is an economic question,” said Jane Nakano, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But economic security and competitiveness should be a key element in how the next Japanese prime minister approaches energy and decarbonization policymaking.”
(Updates with context on idled reactor in eighth paragraph. An earlier version of the story corrected the GDP figure in the last paragraph.)
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