(Bloomberg) -- Arabica coffee prices jumped in New York after frost in Brazil added to supply concerns as growers brace for another cold snap in coming days.
Farmers reported some cases of frost on coffee crops over the weekend but the episodes were “isolated,” said Juliano Tarabal, an executive director at the Cerrado Coffee Producers Federation, which represents growers in one of Brazil’s main arabica regions.
More widespread frost may occur as soon as Tuesday as frigid weather threatens to stretch into coffee-producing states such as Minas Gerais and São Paulo, said Rural Clima meteorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos.
The most-active arabica contract rose as much as 7%, the most since July 9, extending the year-to-date advance to almost 30%.
“The minimal frost occurrence in parts of Cerrado/High Mogiana was enough to spark new fears of supply,” said Thiago Cazarini, president of Cazarini Trading Co. “We are already in an environment that can see no errors in production.”
Frost would add to crop stress caused by dry weather in Brazil that’s already threatening to hurt next year’s output. Also, any rain ahead of the frost could trigger premature flowering that may not survive if there are no follow-on showers, according to Judith Ganes, president of New York-based J. Ganes Consulting.
“That would be a strike against the Brazilian 2025/26 crop potential,” she wrote in a research note.
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