(Bloomberg) -- Europe is set for above normal temperatures in February, helping weaken heating demand following a winter that drained Europe’s gas inventories faster than usual.
Northwest Europe, including the UK and Germany, are forecast to have a brief cold start to the month, before temperatures climb, reaching as much as 3C (5F) above normal, according to Weather Services International and Maxar Technologies Inc. The unseasonal warmth in early February is likely to be more pronounced in the Balkans, which could be 4C above normal, said Maxar meteorologist Matthew Dross.
“We are expecting a warm start to the month for central and eastern Europe,” he said.
As February unfolds, the above-average temperatures will be partly due to the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is in a positive phase that usually brings in warm winds from the west, Dross said. The same pattern often shifts the jet stream, which can fuel storms across northwest Europe.
Low Wind
Weather models also suggest dry, milder conditions could mean below-average wind power potential in some areas, including Germany.
That trend is expected to continue into spring and follows a year that saw slumping wind generation in Germany, according to analysis by BloombergNEF. Seven months in 2024 registered lower-than-average wind speeds and in March and October, average wind power output dropped 13% and 18%, respectively, according to analysts Jess Hicks and Emma Coker.
Total 2024 German wind power output fell 6% from 2023 levels, despite generation capacity increasing 3% year-on-year, according to the analysis.
Storm Clusters
Further periods of Atlantic storms are forecast for February, after Éowyn and Herminia caused disruption this month.
Éowyn blacked out power for hundreds of thousands and disrupted transport for days across Ireland and the UK. A few days later, Storm Herminia dumped heavy rains on already saturated ground, resulting in the worst flooding in 40 years in northwest France.
Ocean patterns could fuel “clusters” of storms popping up throughout the month, according to a longer-term weather outlook published by the UK Met Office.
One wild card is an area of high pressure developing over Scandinavia, said Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist at Atmospheric G2. If that high-pressure lingers longer than expected, it could block the warm and wet western winds and bring calmer, drier conditions to northwest Europe.
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