Oil Averaging $65 in ‘25 to Keep OPEC+ Under Pressure, BofA Says

By Mitchell Ferman

January 06, 2025 at 9:38AM EST

Oil well pump jacks operated by Chevron Corp. in San Ardo, California, U.S., on Tuesday, April 27, 2021. California Governor Gavin Newsom announced a plan to ban new hydraulic fracturing permits in the coming years and to consider phasing out oil production statewide by 2045. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg****EDITOR NOTE: DRONE VIEW***** (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- International benchmark Brent crude will average $65 a barrel this year as new oil production from non-OPEC countries outstrips the growth in global crude consumption, according to Bank of America Corp.

As a result, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will struggle to boost oil prices and have to maintain output reductions longer than the cartel has forecast, the bank’s researchers said.

“We are busy highlighting more downside than upside risk to this oil price,” Head of European Energy Research Christopher Kuplent told reporters Monday. With OPEC+ cutting for longer than planned “cracks are already starting to appear in terms of compliance with these quotas.”

Supply growth this year will come from Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Norway, Kuplent said. Just a slight increase is expected from US shale, even as President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to “drill, baby, drill.”