(Bloomberg) -- Egypt will probably hold interest rates at a record high, seeking to ensure inflation keeps slowing before embarking on its first monetary easing since 2020.
All but one of 11 economists in a Bloomberg survey see the central bank keeping the benchmark deposit rate at 27.25% on Thursday. The exception, Bank of America Corp., forecasts a cut of 25 basis points.
A sixth consecutive rate pause would come even after the North African nation’s consumer price index fell to 25.5%, its lowest in almost two years, in November. Inflation remains elevated all the same — a symptom of two years of grueling economic crisis until a $57 billion global bailout agreed in early 2024 offered a way out.
Those funds included an expanded $8 billion International Monetary Fund loan program. The fund earlier this week completed its fourth review of Egypt’s program, potentially unlocking a $1.2 billion loan tranche.
Most economists see Egypt waiting until the end of the first quarter at the earliest before a rate cut. The central bank said in September the current interest rate would remain appropriate “until a significant and sustained decline in inflation is realized.”
Further inflationary pressures may come from a recent weakening in Egypt’s pound, stemming at least in part from seasonal portfolio outflows. The currency, which plunged about 40% in March, has been on a streak of declines in recent weeks. It crossed the milestone of 50 per dollar this month to trade around a record low.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is among those who see the pound potentially bouncing back in 2025 as outflows taper off and possible issuances of new bonds give investors a chance to re-enter the market.
--With assistance from Tarek El-Tablawy.
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