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Russia Fuel Exports Set for Yearly Drop as Refining Takes a Hit

(Vortexa data, compiled by Bloomb)

(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s seaborne fuel exports are set to fall sharply this year after the country’s oil refineries scaled back processing and Moscow ordered them to prioritize the domestic market. 

Seaborne oil product flows from Russia have averaged about 2.2 million barrels a day so far in 2024, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. That’s a drop of 9% from the average volumes last year and 10% below the levels in 2022, when Europe was still importing Russian fuels.

The figures are even bigger than a drop-off in the country’s own refining levels, which slumped by roughly 3% so far in 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, according to historic data reviewed by Bloomberg. Against a backdrop of Ukrainian drone attacks, Russia has tasked the plants with ensuring that the domestic market has enough fuel — potentially depleting exports.

 

“The year-to-year decrease is likely due to the drone strikes on refineries and high turnaround or maintenance season on secondary units,” said Pamela Munger, a senior market analyst at Vortexa. 

Western sanctions targeting the Kremlin’s energy sector have so far had little impact on the nation’s ability to export fuels. Russia has manged to offset the loss of US and European market by redirecting flows to new markets in Asia, the Middle East and Africa.

Roughly 20% of Russia’s fuels sailed to Turkey, followed by 11% to China. About 17% of Russian diesel and gasoil were exported to Brazil this year.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.