(Bloomberg) -- The Biden administration is promising the US will slash planet-warming pollution at least 61% over the next decade, raising the country’s climate ambition even as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to obliterate policies key to achieving the target.
The move — coming in the form of a new US emissions-cutting pledge under the Paris Agreement — is both optimistic and defiant, based on expectations that companies, states and cities will intensify their fight against climate change even if Trump makes good on his vows to lead a federal government retreat.
With the pledge, the US is vowing to reduce its net greenhouse gas emissions between 61% and 66% by 2035, compared to 2005 levels. President Joe Biden said in a White House video address that the effort will create momentum for industry to “keep inventing and keep investing.”
“And together,” he added, “we will turn this existential threat into a once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform our nation for generations to come.”
John Podesta, Biden’s senior international climate adviser, described the goal as both “ambitious and achievable.” “We’re confident in America’s ability to rally around this new climate goal,” Podesta told reporters in a briefing ahead of the move. Although Trump “may put climate action on the back burner,” he said, “the work to contain climate change is going to continue in the United States with commitment and passion and belief.”
Under the Paris Agreement, countries are supposed to provide their new 2035 pledges, known as nationally determined contributions, by early February. Heightened ambition is seen as key to constraining warming below a 1.5C threshold critical for avoiding more catastrophic consequences of climate change.
Yet the US is already not on track to meet its previous Paris Agreement pledge for a 50% to 52% emissions cut by 2030. That’s despite Biden-era policies such as subsidies for electric vehicles, pollution limits on power plants and other rules — which Trump has vowed to eviscerate. Now the burden for continued carbon cuts will fall more heavily on the private sector and subnational governments, setting up a test of the durability of the clean energy investments mobilized by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.
The climate law offers hundreds of billions of dollars in tax credits, loans and other subsidies to propel private sector spending on new emission-free power and factories to build advanced energy tech. The investments have flowed nationwide but are especially concentrated in congressional districts held by Republicans, a dynamic that might enhance their political staying power.
It’s a “paradigm-shifting strategy that has both accelerated decarbonization and also expanded economic opportunity and economic growth,” said White House National Climate Advisor Ali Zaidi. “Climate action is no longer about gloom and doom but about hope and possibilities.”
Trump’s plans to cull carbon-cutting regulations and propel more domestic oil and gas production cast an unavoidable shadow over the Biden administration’s effort. Before Trump’s election in November, officials were eyeing a more robust commitment that would have taken the form of a narrower range and potentially separate targets for the power and auto sectors, according to people familiar with the deliberations.
The University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability has modeled ways that combined federal and non-federal action could allow the US to gut greenhouse gas emissions 65% from 2005 levels by 2035. In December, it offered an updated analysis predicting the US could reduce emissions 54% to 62% by 2035, even with federal inaction and policy rollbacks.
Under Biden, the US has spent months working with other major-emitting economies to chart 2035 climate targets that require steep reductions to hit net zero goals by mid-century. One result of that effort was a united show of force during UN climate talks in November, with the European Union, Canada, Mexico and other countries highlighting their plans — a bid to encourage similar ambition from other top polluters.
Paris Agreement signatories agreed last year in Dubai to make their pledges economy-wide and to cover all greenhouse gases. China, the world’s biggest current emitter, is under pressure to enumerate a specific target for cutting releases of methane, an especially potent heat-trapping compound and the primary component of natural gas. In its new 2035 pledge, the US says it anticipates methane reductions of at least 35% from 2005 levels by 2035.
Some environmentalists said the US was falling short of its obligations, after decades growing its economy burning fossil fuels — and becoming the world’s No. 1 historical emitter in the process.
But most cheered on the Biden-era effort, saying it sends an important signal to statehouses and corporate boardrooms that strong US climate action is still vital, with or without help from Washington.
“The 2035 climate target can serve as a North Star for states, cities and corporations,” said Manish Bapna, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council. “This is a signal for governors, mayors and CEOs who are eager to embrace this opportunity to lead by defending and stepping up climate progress — and reaping the economic benefits that come with it.”
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