(Bloomberg) -- Denmark warned that Russia’s navy may start escorting the so-called shadow fleet tankers through Danish straits to escalate provocations against NATO countries.
Threats against Denmark have become “more serious,” and Russia now has more options to challenge North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s members with “a more threatening military behavior,” the Danish Defense Intelligence Service said in its annual security outlook on Wednesday.
This could include letting Russian warships escort tankers exporting millions of barrels of Moscow’s petroleum through the Baltic Sea. “If this happens, it will increase the level of tension,” the agency said.
Twelve Northern European nations including Denmark earlier this week announced they would introduce checks on insurance policies of passing Russian tankers. This could be followed up with more tangible actions for ships falling short with their cover.
Denmark will play a crucial role in the implementation of those checks, as its narrow straits are a critical trade artery through which Russian oil has flowed largely unrestrained since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine, helping fund President Vladimir Putin’s war economy.
Russia is also expected to display more risky behavior toward civil shipping and aviation, Denmark’s foreign intelligence service said. Its toolkit is likely to include military exercise activities near NATO territory, as well as jamming in large geographical areas “without regard to ships’ and aircraft’s communications and GPS signals,” according to the report.
A more threatening behavior toward Denmark’s and other NATO countries’ military aircraft and ships similarly “poses a risk of misunderstandings and minor collisions both in the Baltic Sea and in the Arctic,” it said.
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