(Bloomberg) -- There’s been a resurgence of tankers that are part of the mainstream fleet loading Russian crude after oil slipped closer to price-cap compliant levels, according to BRS Shipbrokers.
The share of regular ships taking Russian crude over recent weeks has climbed by about 2%, BRS said in a note dated Dec. 16. Should oil prices remain weak into next year, and assuming the price cap remains unadjusted, this trend could lead to a decline in demand for so-called gray fleet vessels, they added.
Still, the gray fleet continues to expand by about 10 tankers a month, and is currently made up of around 850 vessels, or about 9% of the global flotilla. The increase indicates the premiums available to mainstream tanker owners to sell their ships into the gray fleet for further trading, compared with its notional demolition value, BRS said.
There’s evidence of idled ships at anchor, but it’s unlikely they will remain unused for an extended period, unless there’s a change of stance from the buyers of Russian and Iranian crude, the shipbroker said.
“This appears unlikely in the short-term and probably would only be driven by political pressure, potentially in the case of China’s appetite for cheap Iranian and Russian oil being part of any future trade negotiations between the incoming Trump administration and Beijing,” BRS said.
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