(Bloomberg) -- Mozambique’s economy is buckling as weeks of intensifying election protests evolve into a revolt that’s increasingly being felt beyond the borders of the southern African nation.
The unrest prompted Tesla Inc. supplier Syrah Resources Ltd. to declare force majeure, while hitting output at sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest aluminum smelter and disrupting South Africa’s chrome exports. It’s causing domestic economic wreckage, with Standard Bank Group Ltd. predicting the first quarterly economic contraction since 2020.
There is no sign of tensions cooling, with fears of further delays to a $20 billion natural gas export plan led by TotalEnergies SE. Venâncio Mondlane, the charismatic opposition leader commanding the demonstrations from self-exile via livestream, plans to announce a fresh round of protests on Dec. 16. Scores of people have been killed by security forces.
What started out as a protest against claims of rigging in the Oct. 9 ballot has exploded into an outcry among marginalized youth. The revolt is the latest instance of a resurgence of unrest in sub-Saharan Africa, where gaping inequality and perceptions of exclusion have provided fertile ground this year in Kenya, Nigeria and elsewhere.
Mondlane has called for all mines in Mozambique to be closed until Jan. 15, when he said he’d be inaugurated as president. His message that the nation’s natural resources don’t benefit locals resonates among Mozambicans, three in four of whom live on less than $2.15 per day.
“The deeper socio-economic factors and the election rigging are intertwined as causes of the current unrest,” Roberto Tibana, who helped Mondlane write his election manifesto, said by phone. “People voted for a manifesto and someone they believe will change their circumstances, and now they believe their vote is being ignored.”
Opposition parties have challenged the election in court, with the Constitutional Council yet to verify the results. Observers have pointed to ballot-box stuffing and tally manipulation.
Ruling party Frelimo did not rig the vote, said spokesman Edmundo Galiza Matos Jr, noting the council’s judges are considering the complaints.
“We have social problems, problems that we need to solve,” he said by phone, adding Mondlane should return to Mozambique to join talks and end the unrest. “We cannot destroy our country.”
Force Majeure
Syrah, which mines graphite in Mozambique to process in the US, on Thursday declared force majeure at its Balama operation, blaming intensifying unrest. Syrah has been sending battery ingredients to Tesla for testing ahead of commercial sales starting next year. Other mines have also faced invasions and blockages.
Mozambique’s biggest brewery paused production on Dec. 11 after people raided the facility, according to a statement from Anheuser-Busch InBev SA’s local unit, among the country’s top corporate taxpayers.
Fiscal receipts have fallen and outgoing President Filipe Nyusi has warned civil service salaries may be delayed.
Bonds Drop
The nation’s dollar bonds have dropped to a 12-month low. The government’s reliance on local debt markets to finance the deficit is becoming more challenging. A Dec. 10 bond auction raised less than one-third of what was offered.
Standard Bank’s local unit slashed its 2024 economic growth forecast to 2.5%, less than half of 2023’s growth rate. The main business lobby sees economic losses approaching $400 million.
Logistical constraints are adding to price pressures, said Eduardo Sengo, director at the Confederation of Economic Associations.
Cries of “this country is ours! Save Mozambique!” have echoed across the nation since protests started Oct. 21. Police have met them with bullets and teargas, with at least 110 deaths, monitoring group Platform Decide said.
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Many Mozambicans, where the median age is less than 18, have little to lose. About 500,000 school leavers each year compete for scarce jobs. One in three remain out of work in one of the world’s most unequal societies.
Climate change adds layers of difficulty, with frequent droughts and severe storms hurting growth. Tropical cyclone Chido is set to strike the nation’s north coast at the weekend, threatening a trail of destruction in a region already suffering from an Islamic State-linked insurgency.
Anger over official corruption and vote rigging adds to the mix that Mondlane has called “a perfect combination for a revolution.”
The presidential candidate, who placed second and fled the country to an unknown location, likened the unrest to war. Torched police stations and ruling party offices paint a picture of conflict.
“With urban warfare, normally you don’t need a long time,” he said in a phone interview last month. “You can resolve everything in one year, or one month or two months — it’s enough.”
(Updates with ruling party comment from the fourth paragraph below the Read More box.)
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