(Bloomberg) -- Swings in the $29 trillion Treasury market have gotten smaller in reaction to fresh US inflation data, taking a back seat to labor market prints where volatility has accelerated.
Two-year Treasury yields increased by about 1 basis point as of Wednesday afternoon after November’s consumer price index came in line with economists’ estimates. An inflation print with no major surprises supported a muted response.
Gang Hu, managing partner at Winshore Capital Partners LP, said “the volatility of inflation is coming down,” making it easier to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s policy moves.
“The Fed still cares about inflation,” he said, “but the labor market carries more weight in its decision making process.”
While same-day Treasury moves in reaction to CPI reports have recently become more subdued, bond market volatility has surged on the days non-farm payrolls are released, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Over the past five months, two-year Treasury yields, on average, moved about 4 basis points in sessions that had CPI releases. In the same period, they shifted about 13 basis points on average when jobs reports were published.
Inflation reports, Hu said, are now a “lagging indicator,” with President-elect Donald Trump vowing to enact a sweeping policy agenda that includes cracking down on immigration and slapping tariffs on trading partners.
“The market knows that Trump is coming and he may change things dramatically,” he said. “Investors cannot extrapolate today’s inflation too much.”
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