(Bloomberg) -- Polish central bank Governor Adam Glapinski unexpectedly pushed back the outlook for interest rate cuts into 2026, citing concerns inflation will surge again after the government eventually removes energy price caps.
Zloty jumped and government bonds sank as the comments blindsided investors. Glapinski and several other policymakers had previously made the case for cuts to start as early as March.
Glapinski told reporters on Thursday that the inflation outlook has become more “complicated” by the fact that government legislation regarding caps on electricity prices is due to expire at the end of September.
The governor said that a spike in price growth may ensue afterward, preventing the central bank from easing as previously expected. He spoke for an hour and didn’t take questions.
“This whole thing is moving back to 2026,” Glapinski said about potential monetary loosening. “We can’t allow inflation expectations to rise.”
The central bank said Glapinski had no time for questions as he had to attend other matters. On Wednesday, his Monetary Policy Council kept its benchmark at 5.75% — the level it’s been at since late 2023.
The shift in outlook comes as Poland’s $800 billion economy is struggling and in need of lower borrowing costs as central banks across the globe loosen policy. Seasonally-adjusted gross domestic product shrank 0.1% in the third quarter, compared with the previous three months.
“Glapinski has shifted bets on rate cuts,” said Bank Pekao SA analysts, led by Ernest Pytlarczyk. ING Bank Slaski SA economists, led by Rafal Benecki, said: “Glapinski never surprises in one thing — his unpredictability. We find it hard to believe that in such an environment, no cuts may happen at all in 2025.”
The zloty jumped as much as 0.5% against the euro on Thursday, hitting the strongest level since Sept. 25. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 9 basis points to 5.68%.
‘Very Dynamic’ Situation
Previously, MPC members have signaled that talks over reducing the benchmark could begin next March. Now, Glapinski said such discussions would start in October at the earliest. He also said that inflation will hover around 5% in the first half of 2025, compared with 4.6% in November and the policymakers’ target of 2.5%, plus/minus 1 percentage point.
Unlike peers across much of eastern Europe, Poland’s central bank has kept interest rates unchanged throughout 2024, leaving them at 5.75% at this week’s meeting. The government has reduced or fully exited from costly price caps on food and energy costs, but seeks to keep electricity prices unchanged for the first nine months of 2025.
“The situation is very dynamic, and maybe some changes in the macro environment will prompt the MPC to change rhetoric again,” said Piotr Bujak, chief economist at PKO Bank Polski SA. “For the time being, we’re not changing our expectations that rate cuts will resume in the second quarter of 2025.”
Glapinski has a track record of surprising markets with sudden shifts in rhetoric as well as policy decisions. In July, Glapinski changed his outlook for easing back by a year to 2026, only to make a U-turn and return to a 2025 view during September. At the time, he said his comments regarding 2026 were misunderstood.
In September of last year, the governor shocked markets by cutting interest rates when inflation was still in double-digits and followed with another reduction a month later, just weeks before Poland held parliamentary elections. The decision sent the zloty lower.
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