(Bloomberg) -- Panama’s finance chief is working to pull off an economic soft landing that would gradually reduce the country’s budget deficit and hopefully avoid the loss of its coveted investment grade credit rating.
Felipe Chapman, who took the reins of the Central American economy earlier this year, estimates that the budget gap will widen to 6% of gross domestic product in 2024 as President Jose Raul Mulino settles debts left by the previous administration and faces revenue loss related to the closing of a key copper mine. The minister plans to narrow that deficit to 4% of GDP in 2025 and 2% of GDP by 2029, when Mulino’s term ends.
“I think we can reverse the trend before this administration ends,” Chapman said during a recent interview in Panama City. He promised to immediately take measures to lower expenditures if public revenue falls below estimates.
Whether that will be sufficient to appease ratings firms worried about Panama’s fiscal deterioration is yet to be seen. Fitch Ratings downgraded the country to junk territory in March and Moody’s Ratings slapped a negative outlook on its rating for the country’s debt, currently at the lowest investment-grade level.
A second downgrade to junk, either by Moody’s or S&P Global Ratings, would likely trigger a selloff of Panama’s bonds by institutional investors who are only allowed to keep investment-grade securities in their portfolios.
Despite the fiscal pressures, Chapman ruled out a fiscal reform in the near term, saying the administration has enough discretion to cut expenses when necessary. He pledged “disciplined and rigorous” budget management and said the ministry will closely monitor spending.
“The budget is not an order, nor a mandate, nor an obligation to spend,” Chapman said. “I feel comfortable that there are enough tools and space to maneuver and meet fiscal targets.”
Instead, Chapman is now focused on a social security reform that was sent to congress in November and that includes proposals to raise the retirement age and increase employer contributions to the system. The plan is facing protests from the population and opposition from lawmakers, even those from the ruling party. The nation’s bonds extended losses on Wednesday.
Any changes legislators make to the pension bill would have to be evaluated to determine their costs and financing sources, Chapman said.
First Quantum
Chapman said the government has yet to start talks with Canada’s First Quantum Minerals Ltd., the owner of a large copper mine that was shuttered by authorities. The government is finalizing terms to hire attorneys who would defend the nation in a potential arbitration, should legal proceedings advance further, he said.
A discussion on how to handle the mine will start “soon, but there is no predetermined date,” Chapman said.
The mine represented more than 4% of the nation’s gross domestic product before it was abruptly closed last year following a constitutional court ruling. In its outlook revision last week, Moody’s cited credit risks from contingent liabilities associated with social security and litigation related to First Quantum’s copper mine.
A recent poll of 1,600 Panamanians by local firm Doxa found that 44% of respondents wanted to keep the mine permanently closed, 27% favored reopening it under government supervision and another 23% said it should reopen only temporarily to raise the money needed for its orderly closing.
Reopening the mine “will depend on how citizens feel,” Chapman said. “We will have to evaluate all the possible alternatives.”
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