(Bloomberg) -- US services activity expanded in November at the slowest pace in three months as demand and employment growth settled back, indicating the largest part of the economy is losing momentum.
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services dropped 3.9 points, the first decline since June, to 52.1 last month, the group said Wednesday. While readings above 50 indicate expansion, the latest figure was weaker than all projections in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
The group’s new orders gauge decreased 3.7 points to a three-month low of 53.7. A measure of business activity, which parallels the ISM’s factory output gauge, also fell to the lowest level since August. Survey respondents noted some apprehension about the potential for tariffs after President-elect Donald Trump’s victory.
“This reinforces the view over the last several months that the services sector has returned to sustained growth,” Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, said in a statement. “Not surprisingly, election ramifications and tariffs were mentioned often, with cautionary outlooks related to the potential impact on respondents’ specific industries.”
Combined with data earlier this week showing an eighth straight month of contraction in manufacturing, the services survey suggests moderating economic growth in the final stretch of 2024.
Fourteen industries reported growth in November, unchanged from a month earlier and led by accommodation and food services, entertainment and recreation, and health care. Mining and real estate were among the three industries that contracted.
The easing of business activity, along with a fourth month of declining backlog orders and a slide in export demand, led to a tempering of employment growth at service providers. The ISM measure slipped 1.5 points to 51.5 last month.
Select ISM Industry Comments
“Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have not had the desired effect on mortgage rates yet. With election results mostly determined, expansion of residential construction is anticipated, but the unknown effect of tariffs clouds the future.” — Construction
“Higher level of activity is driving the need for additional resources.” — Finance & Insurance
“We have concern after the presidential election that tariffs will affect prices for electronics and components in 2025.” — Information
“Election results and the potential tariff changes would impact inventory and lead to higher prices in the hospital supply chain.” — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
“We finished a solid quarter and are planning on a similar holiday period. Not breaking any records, but positive.” — Retail Trade
“Still waiting to see how presidential cabinet picks shake out, if they are confirmed and how they will affect our operations going forward. Holding capital projects now until the cabinet is complete and we know how federal funds will be dispersed going forward.” — Transportation & Warehousing
Amid the moderation in demand, supplier delivery times also quickened, with the group’s gauge slipping back below 50.
Meanwhile, the index of prices paid for materials and services edged higher in a sign services continue to contend with elevated cost pressures.
--With assistance from Chris Middleton.
(Adds graphic, select ISM industry comments)
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