(Bloomberg) -- French President Emmanuel Macron lands in Riyadh on Monday for a two-day state visit, with fighter jets and geopolitical turbulence featuring high on his itinerary.
This is Macron’s first state visit to the Kingdom since Mohammed bin Salman was cast as a pariah following the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.
MBS has since made a comeback, helped by a realization in the West that it can’t ignore the kingdom’s financial and political heft or afford to see it pivot more to China and Russia. Amid a rapidly evolving global order, with conflicts raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, Macron will aim to deepen ties with the Saudi leader who also has a solid relationship with incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.
Macron will seek to capitalize on the kingdom’s spending spree by touting France’s role as a partner in Saudi Arabia’s drive to become a global hub for innovation and tourism.
The visit also underscores Macron’s active international diplomacy in recent weeks, at a time when his government is extremely fragile at home, and investor concerns rise about a budget dispute amid a massive public deficit.
Here’s what to watch:
Defense Deals
France is intensifying its push to sell some 50 Rafale fighter jets, made by Dassault Aviation, to Saudi Arabia. This effort comes after Germany signaled it may resume exports of Eurofighter Typhoon jets, reversing its ban on arms sales to nations involved in the Yemen conflict. The competition is fierce, with U.S.-made Boeing F-15 jets also vying for Saudi interest. Germany’s potential deliveries, however, could take years, giving France a window of opportunity.
International Crises
MBS has gone from international outcast a few years ago to positioning himself as key power broker, by seeking to elevate his stature through overtures in regional mediation. His growing influence, bolstered by ties with the Trump clan, makes him a key ally for Macron. The French leader thus far has had little success with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in resolving the Gaza conflict. Riyadh meanwhile has expressed strong opposition to civilian casualties in Israel’s recent conflicts with Iranian proxies in Gaza and Lebanon.
The Saudis will seek Macron’s support in furthering Riyadh’s efforts in gaining wider recognition for a Palestinian state. The kingdom, which sees itself as the leader of the Arab and Muslim worlds, is motivated by a desire to address the reawakened sympathy for Palestinians worldwide and remove an obstacle to normalization of ties with Israel — a precondition for a binding defense treaty with Washington.
Macron is also expected to press MBS to leverage his relationship with Russia to help end the war in Ukraine. As leading members of OPEC, Riyadh and Moscow wield significant influence in global oil markets.
Fresh cash for startups
Macron could also seek Saudi funding for French startups struggling to raise funds in Europe. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, known for investments in Silicon Valley and Premier League football, is a potential source of cash injection into French firms.
The French president will pitch for a bigger share of the Saudi investment fund pie, which has become a global financial player under the crown prince’s command. The sovereign wealth fund had assets under management of more than $600 billion in 2022, and with plans to reach $2 trillion by 2030. Under MBS’ reign, the fund has become a tool for cultivating soft power.
Tourism and Culture
Saudi Arabia aims to become a global tourism hotspot, targeting 70 million visitors annually by 2030. France, with its expertise in cultural offerings such as museums and festivals, hopes to secure a significant role in this transformation.
A 2018 bilateral agreement between Paris and Riyadh centered on developing the ancient Saudi city of Al-Ula remains a flagship tourist project for the Kingdom. The accord includes setting up a Saudi fund to support French cultural heritage. France’s special envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, who is also the head of a joint Franco-Saudi agency supporting the development of Al-Ula, is expected to join Macron on this visit.
The visit also comes amid a rebalancing of priorities by MBS. According to French newspaper Le Monde, Saudi funding for Al-Ula has been scaled back as MBS focuses on hosting the 2030 World Expo and the 2034 FIFA World Cup in Riyadh.
Nuclear Ambitions
While Saudi Arabia recently opposed a move to single out the most polluting sectors at the COP climate summit, some believe that the kingdom will soon invest in nuclear reactors as MBS aims to reduce its dependence on oil and fossil fuels. France’s state-owned Électricité de France SA has an office in Riyadh and could build a hydroelectric plant in the desert to power NEOM, the crown prince’s futuristic megacity project.
France’s TotalEnergies SE is another key player in Saudi Arabia. Its CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who will participate in a business meeting during Macron’s visit, was one of the few who didn’t cancel his appearance at a Riyadh economic forum after Khashoggi’s murder.
Saudi Arabia has been talking to China, South Korea and the US among others as it seeks to launch a civilian nuclear program.
--With assistance from Sam Dagher.
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