(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he’s undecided on whether an interest-rate cut is needed this month, but still believes officials should continue lowering rates over the coming months.
“The risks to achieving the committee’s dual mandates of maximum employment and price stability have shifted such that they are roughly in balance, so we likewise should begin shifting monetary policy toward a stance that neither stimulates nor restrains economic activity,” Bostic wrote in an essay released Monday, referring to the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
Bostic said he thinks inflation is on a sustainable path to the Fed’s 2% goal, despite bumpiness in the data. He also said the labor market shows no sign of rapidly deteriorating, but policymakers need to stay alert to risks facing both inflation and employment.
In a separate phone call with reporters, he said, “I’m keeping my options open” over whether he will support a rate reduction when officials gather in Washington Dec. 17-18.
Policymakers have lowered rates by three quarters of a percentage point since September, starting with a larger-than-usual half-point cut. Several officials have signaled support for a more gradual pace of rate reductions in coming months.
Bostic said he supported recent rate cuts because inflation is on track to reach the Fed’s 2% target. He also said a decline in job vacancies is evidence that restrictive monetary policy has helped to cool the labor market. Still, the Atlanta Fed chief emphasized the labor market remains stable.
“None of these trends send a strong signal that the labor market is rapidly deteriorating nor extremely tight,” Bostic said. “Instead, they suggest that the labor market is cooling in a largely orderly fashion in the face of higher interest rates, a perspective we also hear from our business contacts.”
Inflation
The Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation accelerated in October. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out volatile food and energy items, increased 2.8% from October last year and 0.3% from a month earlier, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
The jump was partly due to higher portfolio management fees driven by a surge in stock prices.
Bostic cited a number of reasons he believed inflation will continue dropping. Specifically, he said softening rents should eventually feed through to lower shelter inflation — a key sticking point for overall price pressures over the past year.
“There are certainly upside risks to price stability,” Bostic said, but added, “I do not view the recent bumpiness as a sign that progress toward price stability has completely stalled.”
Asked about how his economic outlook could be affected by potential tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump, Bostic said he will ask his staff to wait until there is more clarity on what fiscal policies will be enacted.
“One of the things that we have seen over the last six or seven years is that there are lots of proposals that get floated around, and they changed a lot as you go through,” Bostic said.
(Updates in last two paragraphs with fresh comments from call with reporters)
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