(Bloomberg) -- European natural gas prices headed for a second session of gains as weather forecasts turned colder for parts of the continent.
Benchmark futures rose as much as 2.7% following an advance on Friday. After a brief period of mild weather, colder temperatures are expected to return to western Europe next week, quickly spreading further into the continent, according to forecaster Maxar Technologies.
That should boost heating demand, adding to upward pressure on gas prices. Stronger oil have also been supporting gas futures as traders monitor risks to global energy supplies from Ukraine to the Middle East.
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Withdrawals from Europe’s fuel inventories have already been occurring at a faster-than-usual pace, potentially complicating next year’s stockpiling efforts. With less a month left before a gas transit deal between Russia and Ukraine expires, Europe risks losing part of its supplies at the peak of its heating season.
For now, Russia’s gas exports through Ukraine continue as usual, although flows on Monday could see a marginal decrease. Markets reacted to the drop, according to consultancy Auxilione.
Gas storage facilities across the continent are now only 85% full, down from 95% at the same time last year, and the European Union has raised its target for stockpiles by February to ensure it’s adequately prepared in 2025.
“Risks for European gas prices are skewed to the upside, with a cold winter start eroding inventories,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Patricio Alvarez and Joao Martins said in a note on Monday. They see a chance Europe’s inventories could end the season 39% full even in the absence of weather extremes, complicating next summer’s refill campaign and intensifying competition with Asia for fuel.
Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, rose 2.3% to €48.90 a megawatt-hour at 8:45 a.m. in Amsterdam. The UK equivalent contract also gained.
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