(Bloomberg) -- Chile’s economic activity posted the first monthly increase since July as a strong gain in services blunted declines across other key sectors, backing the case for another interest rate cut in December.
The Imacec index, a proxy for gross domestic product, rose 0.4% on the month in October, more than the 0.2% median estimate from analysts in a Bloomberg survey. From the year earlier, activity increased 2.3%, the central bank reported Monday.
Chile’s central bank has slashed borrowing costs by 6 percentage points since mid-2023 as economic growth struggles to gain traction. While consumption firmed through much of the year, mining has been volatile and investment has been weak. Still, annual inflation above the 3% target and rising global geopolitical tensions give reason for policymakers to remain cautious.
What Bloomberg Economics Says
“October data showed uneven Chilean activity and underlying weakness despite a headline advance. It signals GDP fell below potential and central bank forecasts early in the fourth quarter. Along with weak labor-market conditions and tight monetary conditions, that argues for more interest-rate cuts.”
— Felipe Hernandez, Latin America economist
— Click here for full report
Services increased 0.9% on the month in October, according to the central bank. On the other hand, mining and commerce both slipped by 0.3% during the period and industry declined by 0.7%.
Economists surveyed by the central bank last month expect policymakers to cut borrowing costs by a quarter-point to 5% at their Dec. 17 decision.
Gross domestic product increased 0.7% in the third quarter, roughly in line with expectations, the central bank reported on Nov. 18. Finance Minister Mario Marcel had previously said the government would lower its 2024 economic growth forecast from 2.6% after that report came out.
Smaller companies particularly in the real estate and commercial sectors are seeing higher rates of non-payments on loans, Chile’s central bank wrote in its latest financial stability report. On the other hand, the situation of local households is improving as real income rises, according to the document.
--With assistance from Giovanna Serafim.
(Re-casts first paragraph, adds economist quote in fourth paragraph)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.