(Bloomberg) -- Inflation expectations of consumers in the euro area edged higher in October, according to the European Central Bank — supporting policymakers arguing in favor of a cautious approach to lowering interest rates.
Prices are seen rising 2.5% over the next 12 months, up from 2.4% in September but still lower than in any other month since September 2021, the ECB said Friday in its monthly survey. The gauge for three years remained at 2.1%, just above the ECB’s target.
Expectations about future price developments play a key role in driving inflation, with policymakers still looking for more evidence that their 2% goal will be met sustainably sometime next year, as currently planned.
While inflation eased to 2% for the first time since 2021 in October, it held steady this month in Germany while accelerating in France and Spain. The reading for the 20-nation euro zone, due later Friday, is estimated by analysts in a Bloomberg poll to come in at 2.3%, in line with warnings from policymakers that the road back to 2% may be bumpy.
In less than two weeks, the ECB is still widely expected to lower its deposit rate for the fourth time this year. There’s a growing debate about the possible end point for borrowing costs, with some urging cautious steps toward a level that neither constrains nor stimulates the economy. Others have emphasized the risk that inflation may fall below target amid subdued activity, refusing to rule out bigger steps to avoid falling behind the curve.
The ECB’s survey showed consumers becoming slightly more pessimistic on the economy, foreseeing a 1.1% contraction over the next 12 months compared with a 0.9% retreat previously.
The poll also showed:
- Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead dropped to 10.4% from 10.6% in October
- Nominal incomes are seen growing 1.1%, down from 1.3%
- Expectations for nominal spending growth over the next year increased to 3.3% from 3.2%
- Consumers expect the price of their home to increase by 2.8% over the next 12 months — unchanged from September
- Expectations for mortgage interest rates declined slightly, to 4.6%
--With assistance from Barbara Sladkowska and Joel Rinneby.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.