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Le Pen’s Party Yet to Decide on Toppling French Government

(Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- Far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s finance chief said Wednesday her lawmakers have not yet decided if they will vote to bring down the French government in a no-confidence motion over the budget. 

Le Pen’s National Rally is set to cast the deciding votes in a ballot to censure the government that is likely to take place in the coming weeks as Prime Minister Michel Barnier attempts to adopt the 2025 budget. 

The prospect of a government collapse has fueled investor concern over the political and financial outlook for France. The gap between French 10-year bond and safer German equivalents widened as much as four basis points to 90 basis points on Wednesday, the highest since 2012.

“Censuring the government is grave and should not be taken lightly,” National Rally lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy said at a press conference at the French parliament. 

Barnier will probably have to use a constitutional provision known as 49.3 to bypass a parliamentary vote and adopt next year’s budget, as his government lacks a majority in the lower house.

But using the tool could lead to a no-confidence vote, which would need the backing of both the far right and the left-wing alliance New Popular Front to succeed. While political opposites, both groups have criticized Barnier’s budget proposals.  

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“If the government were to fall in the coming weeks, Macron would have to reappoint a new cabinet since no new elections can take place before July. It is unlikely at this stage that he would consider resigning to facilitate an early presidential election.”

—Antonio Barroso and Eleonora Mavroeidi. For full insight, click here

The far-right lawmaker’s comments come just hours after Barnier warned that there would be a “serious storm” in financial markets if the budget is rejected and he is voted out of power. 

Tanguy said the warning unnecessarily fuels fears as there are options for legislation to ensure the state keeps functioning if the budget bill fails. The National Rally would back such emergency laws to allow the state to continue to collect taxes, he added. 

The lawmaker said the budget debate is not yet over and there is still room for significant changes to bills as they move between the French Senate and the National Assembly.

“Claiming that censure has already been decided on by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella would be false and irresponsible as it closes the door to final negotiations,” Tanguy said, referring to the party’s chiefs. 

--With assistance from James Hirai.

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