(Bloomberg) -- OPEC+ has few options when it comes to bringing back the oil production capacity it has been keeping off the market, according to some of the world’s top energy trading houses.
The group will discuss on Dec. 1 whether to return barrels to the market, and senior trading executives said they expect the supply increase to be pushed back again. Oil prices have dropped toward $70 a barrel due to weaker-than-expected demand this year and the outlook for strong supply in 2025.
“I think that there’s no room for them to increase and the market will remind them of that when necessary,” Gunvor Group Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Torbjörn Törnqvist said on a panel at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on Tuesday.
Much hinges on geopolitical factors. Already oil markets are looking ahead at how a second Donald Trump presidency plays in out terms of foreign policy, particularly toward major OPEC producer Iran. Further sanctions could affect how much the country exports and also impact regional shipping flows, said Ben Luckock head of oil trading at Trafigura Group.
That means the organization may wait to make a decision on returning barrels.
“The likelihood is for OPEC try to mange the market in the next two to three months, to wait and see whether these geopolitical factors will solve themselves,” said Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy.
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