(Bloomberg) -- South Africa’s central bank lowered borrowing costs for a second successive meeting and said its modeling showed further cuts were in the offing, but that the outlook remains highly uncertain.
Policymakers cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.75%, Governor Lesetja Kganyago told reporters at a briefing north of Johannesburg on Thursday. That was in line with expectations of all 20 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
“As a central bank in a small, open economy, caution is what going be at play here,” said Kganyago, adding the option of cutting rates by a bigger margin wasn’t discussed. The decision was backed by all six members of the monetary policy committee at their final meeting of 2024.
Data published Wednesday showed annual inflation cooled more than expected to 2.8% in October, taking it below the central bank’s 3% to 6% target band for the first time in more than four years. The central bank sees inflation averaging 4.5% this year, 4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026.
The rand traded 0.6% stronger at 18.0044 per dollar by 4:02 p.m. in Johannesburg. Yields on two-year government bonds rose from a session low and were little changed at 8.17%. The rate on 2035 securities fell five basis points to 10.28%.
“It seems as if the SARB is demonstrating a degree of caution alongside the 25 basis-point cut,” said Brendan McKenna, a strategist at Wells Fargo. Its “model guidance on rates shows a higher policy rate in 2025 and 2026, despite a softer inflation outlook. The rand could be resilient and perform well in the immediate aftermath of the decision.”
The rand, a bellwether for emerging market currencies, has depreciated 3.5% against the dollar since Donald Trump won the US election on Nov. 5. Investors are betting that his policies on tariffs and tax cuts may see the Federal Reserve lower rates by less than forecast. That could keep the US currency strong, which is bad news for South Africa as it makes its imports more expensive, adding to domestic price pressures.
The rand has also been undermined by negative sentiment toward emerging-market assets after Russia’s war with Ukraine entered a dangerous new phase this week. Kyiv carried out strikes on a border region in Russia using Western-supplied missiles and Moscow retaliated.
The reduction in borrowing costs will be welcome by indebted South Africans. An index compiled by DebtBusters, which helps consumers restructure their loans, showed demand for debt counseling increased by 6% in the third quarter, compared with the same period a year ago.
What Bloomberg Economics Says...
“We expect one more 25 basis-point cut in January, which will take interest rates to 7.5% — close to the neutral rate. The narrowing of the output gap to zero over the central bank’s forecast period supports ending the rate-cutting cycle in the near term.
Yvonne Mhango, Africa economist. To read more, click here.
The central bank sees South Africa’s economy growing 1.1% this year, 1.7% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026 and 2% in 2027.
--With assistance from Mpho Hlakudi, Simbarashe Gumbo, Mike Cohen, Paul Richardson and Robert Brand.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.