(Bloomberg) -- Potential trade levies during a second Donald Trump presidency wouldn’t derail the European Central Bank’s easing plans, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said.
Possible US tariffs aren’t expected to significantly alter the outlook for inflation in Europe, where risks to price increases and growth are “shifting to the downside,” the French central bank chief said at a conference in Tokyo on Thursday.
“Based on this assessment, our Governing Council decided on Oct. 17 to lower the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% — this was the third cut in interest rates, and it will not be the last,” he said.
Trump’s return to the White House has fueled debate among policymakers over how a more fragmented global economy could affect their plans to restore price stability with inflation at their 2% target.
Villeroy’s German counterpart, Joachim Nagel, has said the disruption could present new challenges in the form of higher or more volatile inflation.
The debate will come to a head at the ECB’s final policy decision of the year, Dec. 12. While the central bank is widely expected to deliver another 25 basis-point rate cut, agreement on the degree and magnitude of future moves is less certain.
Villeroy repeated in the speech in Tokyo that the ECB shouldn’t pre-commit to a particular pace.
“Looking forward, the path is clear in my view – we should continue to reduce the degree of monetary policy restriction,” he said. “But the pace must be determined by an agile pragmatism: we maintain full optionality for our upcoming meetings.”
Villeroy also said that strong euro-area wage data on Wednesday is in line with ECB expectations.
“Let me stress that the latest rise in negotiated wages in the third quarter is a somewhat backward looking indicator, mainly driven by the lagged effects of past negotiations in Germany,” he said. “And it was already taken into account in our September projections.”
The report showed a key gauge of euro-zone wages jumped by the most since the common currency was introduced in 1999.
(Adds more comments from Villeroy)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.