(Bloomberg) -- The Trump trade in the Treasury market is hitting a wall as buyers have emerged to halt the post-election leap in bond yields.
Traders boosted bearish wagers in the past week, helping push benchmark 10-year yields briefly to 4.5% for the first time since May on the view that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies would spur quicker growth and inflation. Resilient US economic data and dwindling expectations for deeper Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts also played a part.
That level in the 10-year rate, and around 4.68% on the 30-year Treasury, then appeared to draw in buyers, potentially from investors who are holding out hope that the world’s biggest bond market can rally in the coming weeks and avoid a losing year. Tuesday also brought a burst of haven buying as tensions escalated in Russia’s war against Ukraine, adding roadblocks to bond-market shorts.
The upshot is that trades leaning toward higher yields heading into next year look like they’re capped at least for the moment, signaling the potential for a range-bound stretch and ebbing volatility. That backdrop of diminished gyrations may prompt more wagers in listed options targeting periods of calm, such as the $27 million strangle sale seen on Monday.
Meanwhile, in the cash market, bullish positioning has been fading, according to a survey of JPMorgan Chase & Co. clients, who are now the least net long in three weeks.
Here’s a rundown of the latest positioning indicators across the rates market:
JPMorgan Treasury Client Survey
In the week to Nov. 18, JPMorgan client outright longs dropped two percentage points, while the neutral segment rose the same amount. That left the net positioning the least long it’s been since Oct. 28. The amount of short positions was unchanged.
Treasury Options Premium Turns Neutral
The premium to hedge against a selloff in the bond market has diminished as the put/call options skew across the Treasury curve has traded back to neutral, adding weight to expectations for low volatility and range-bound trading. Recent trade highlights in Treasury options include a $27 million strangle sale in the January 10-year tenor, a wager on lower volatility that expires Dec. 27.
Most Active SOFR Options
Over the past week there has been a large amount of new risk added into the SOFR Dec24 95.5625 calls, following flows including heavy buying in the SFRZ4 95.5625/95.625 call spread. There has also been a decent amount of new risk added into the 96.625 strike following recent flows, including SFRM5 96.125/96.625/97.125 call fly and SFRM5 96.50/96.625/96.75/96.875 call condor buying.
SOFR Options Heatmap
In SOFR options out to the June 2025 tenor, the 95.50 strike remains the most populated. Recent flows around the strike have included a SFRZ4 95.50/95.625 call spread buyer and the SFRZ4 95.5625/95.50/95.4375/95.375 put condor. The 96.00 strike is also well-populated where a large amount of Dec25 calls remain. Recent flows around the strike have included SFRH5 96.00/96.25/96.375 broken call flies bought.
CFTC Futures Positioning
Asset managers unwound approximately 35,000 10-year note futures equivalents of their net long duration position across the Treasury futures strip in the week to Nov. 12. In the same period, hedge funds covered approximately 43,000 10-year note futures equivalents of their net duration short. The largest positioning shifts over the week were in the ultra-long bond futures where asset managers unwound $5.6 million per basis point in risk of their net long while hedge funds covered approximately $6.3 million per basis point of their net short.
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