(Bloomberg) -- There will be a steady increase in the number of initial public offerings in the US through 2025, albeit no “switch will be flipped” for companies to rush to list, according to a top executive at Carlyle Group Inc.
Three or four of the firm’s portfolio companies are looking to go public next year after StandardAero Inc. listed last month, said Brian Bernasek, co-head of the Americas corporate private equity team at Carlyle. Shares of the provider of aircraft maintenance services have rallied 19% since it raised $1.7 billion in the third-largest US debut this year.
Some $40 billion have been raised in first-time share sales on US exchanges through Nov. 18, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s a 60% increase from the same stretch last year but still below the average for the decade prior to the pandemic.
Among the IPO candidates is software firm Hexaware Technologies Ltd., which filed for a $1.2 billion listing in September. Carlyle also revived plans to list chemicals producer Nouryon, eyeing a New York IPO that could happen as soon as early 2025, Bloomberg News reported in September. And, Medline Industries LP, owned by Carlyle, Blackstone Inc. and others, is exploring a listing that could value it at as much as $50 billion in 2025, Bloomberg News reported in July.
“The IPO market is either open or it’s closed, you can either go public and price well and trade up, or you can’t,” Bernasek said. “And the can’t times are not that often but they happen and we’re just coming out of one.”
Global companies raised $468 billion from IPOs during the nearly three-year period since 2021, when new listings brought in $669 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The slowness in debuts comes despite a strong backdrop for IPOs, with major stock indexes trading near record highs. New offerings this year have outpaced key benchmarks, largely rewarding investors that were willing to take risks. Companies that raised more than $200 million in a US IPO this year on average saw their shares rise by 31%, compared with the S&P 500’s return of 25% during that time.
Still, the hesitancy surrounding IPO markets means companies face a buyer’s market that’s leading them to lure prospective investors with attractive offer prices. “It is a market where buyers need to make money,” Bernasek said on the sidelines of the SuperReturn North America conference earlier this month.
Expectations for additional interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have been critical following this month’s 25-basis-point reduction. Still, investors view a cut at next month’s meeting as a coin toss, with economic data showing a strong US economy and central bankers pursuing a wait-and-see approach.
Carlyle is preparing for rates to remain steady, Bernasek said. “We’re operating with the expectation that rates will be in and around where they are now and not counting on multiple rate cuts for new deals or exits.”
One risk for IPOs in the new year could be a course correction from the Fed. “In the absence of material growth, if rates were to go back up because of inflationary pressures, that could take some of the steam out of the engine,” Bernasek said. However, “it doesn’t feel like that’s what’s going to happen.”
Debt ratios will be key for companies looking to court potential buyers, he said. “In the market today, you kind of need to be near 3.5 times, but maybe it’ll get toward four times, which is where levels have been historically,” he said.
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