(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump’s victory immediately buoyed markets from stocks to Bitcoin. Gold is going to take a lot longer to turn things around.
In the two days immediately following the Republican candidate’s win, the precious metal’s performance was the worst in at least 13 US presidential election windows, according to Deutsche Bank. Gold prices have dropped almost 7% since Election Day, even as several other asset classes enjoy a post-campaign boost.
“When people get really interested in gold is when nothing else is working,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at US Bank. “Equities are working well; you’re even seeing solid returns for low-quality corporate credit. So you’re less likely to seek out alternative sources of portfolio growth.”
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Gold’s slide is a marked turnaround for a commodity that had surged by more than 30% in the year leading up to the US vote, hitting record after record as geopolitical and economic risk drew investors in. Although longer-term uncertainty remains in place, with Trump known for his at-times wildcard positions, much of gold’s safe-haven appeal apparated after the most bullish scenario for gold — a contested election — failed to materialize.
A rallying dollar in the days since Trump’s re-election is also negative for bullion as it’s priced in the US currency. At the same time, the US economy appears to be in pretty good shape, with inflation easing and the Federal Reserve not in a rush to keep lowering interest rates.
With the rest of the US economy looking so strong right now, “gold would be a contrarian call,” said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “The sentiment right now is there’s very little risk, whether it’s fundamentally, geopolitically. These types of environments, it’s not easy to go against momentum.”
Some investors may not personally agree with the President-elect’s platform, but just knowing what to expect during Trump 2.0 has helped remove some of the recent uncertainty that helped propel the precious metal to new highs. The confirmation of a Republican clean sweep also means there’ll be more leeway to carry out the policies he telegraphed on the campaign trail. Trump’s agenda, ranging from tax cuts to financial deregulation to tariffs, has hedge funds piling into sectors that could benefit, including large-cap banks and domestic industrials.
“We just have more compelling places to put capital” than gold, said Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, citing opportunities in financials and other riskier assets. “Who wants to miss the 10% rally in Goldman Sachs?”
Cryptocurrencies have also surged since Election Day amid expectations that Trump’s policies will boost digital assets. Total assets of iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, BlackRock Inc.’s spot-Bitcoin ETF, surpassed $40 billion for the first time this past week. That surge coincided with a sharp outflow in SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest physically-backed gold ETF.
“With a Trump win, one key implication is that we’re likely to see less regulation on cryptocurrencies. That should pull at least some capital away from gold; that pocket of demand that’s speculative may very well move to cryptos now,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist for Invesco Advisers.
Still, gold may still have some room to run longer term. Trump’s hardline pledges on taxes and tariffs are likely to eventually result in higher deficits and inflation, which could trigger the return to buying gold as an inflationary hedge.
If a second Trump term disrupts global trade and geopolitics, it may also prompt central banks such as those in China and Russia to continue to buy gold to diversify away from the dollar-reserve system.
“A lot of reserve managers of ‘friends’ and ‘neutral-ish’ countries, they’re going to be a little bit more worried about a more erratic foreign policy and implications on the safety of their reserves,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management SA.
The current selloff is “a buy-the-dip story more than anything else,” he added. “After the sharp decline since the US elections, gold has entered a more affordable range.”
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