(Bloomberg) -- Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye will seek to consolidate his grip on power in parliamentary elections on Sunday to push through a series of reforms needed to steady the government’s shaky finances.
Faye succeeded Macky Sall as leader of the West African nation in March and called the snap vote six months later, after struggling to win backing for his policy agenda from a legislature that’s dominated by his opponents.
The election comes as Senegal confronts a debt crisis, with a recent audit showing the previous administration understated its liabilities. Moody’s Ratings responded by cutting the nation’s credit rating further into junk status and placing it on watch for a further downgrade.
The International Monetary Fund suspended disbursements under Senegal’s $1.83 billion funding program, forcing the government to tap capital markets for a second time this year with a $300 million bond sale in October.
Faye needs the legislature’s backing for his Pastef party to pass next year’s budget and lay the groundwork for a new IMF program, according to Leo Morawiecki, a fixed-income specialist at Abrdn Investments. The Finance Ministry has pledged to implement unspecified “ambitious reforms” to rein a the budget deficit estimated at more than 10% of gross domestic product.
“The market is crying out for some political and economic stability in the country and a parliamentary majority for Pastef would be a welcome first step,” Morawiecki said. “Anything other than a majority for Pastef could lead to an impasse in parliament with the country being unable to secure funding to finance the budget deficit.”
Campaigning for Sunday’s election has been heated, with incumbent Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko alleging that Pastef members had been attacked by their rivals and calling on them to take revenge. Sonko was barred from contesting the March presidential vote following a libel conviction, and endorsed Faye, who secured 54% support.
Sall’s bid to run for a third term in that election triggered some of the worst political violence that Senegal has experienced in recent years, and he eventually stepped down and backed his prime minister, Amadou Ba.
While Ba started his own political movement after parting ways with Sall, the two this week formed an alliance to oppose Pastef. Still, they’re unlikely to pose a major threat to Faye’s party, said Eurasia Group analyst Jeanne Ramier.
“Parliamentary election results tend to mirror the outcome of presidential elections when they are held in close succession,” she said.
Polls will be open in Senegal from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m., with 7.3 million people registered to vote. Preliminary results are expected on Sunday evening, provided one side gets a clear majority, and the official outcome should be announced later next week.
The vote is probably Faye’s best bet to transform his policy agenda into law, although the gamble may backfire if it shows popular support that swept him to power in March is ebbing, said Maurice Soudieck Dione, a politics professor at the Université Gaston Berger in the northern city of Saint-Louis.
“Voters might start realizing the far-reaching reforms promised might not materialize,” meaning his grace period could be coming to an end, Dione said.
--With assistance from Colleen Goko.
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