(Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s government said on Friday that it will narrow the fiscal deficit next year even as President Claudia Sheinbaum pledges to boost social programs and support the heavily indebted state driller Petroleos Mexicanos.
The administration will target a budget gap equivalent to 3.9% of gross domestic product in 2025, less than an estimated 5.9% shortfall for this year, according to the proposal that Finance Minister Rogelio Ramirez de la O presented to Congress. The ministry sees a primary fiscal surplus — which excludes debt payments — at 0.6% of GDP next year, from the forecast deficit of 1.4% in 2024, according to the plan which requires lawmakers’ approval.
The peso jumped 0.3% to 20.3349 per dollar, hovering near the day’s high as the budget details were released.
Mexico’s public coffers are coming under pressure due to constant aid to Pemex, as the state oil company is known, as well as the expansion of welfare programs and infrastructure projects including train routes. That spending has prompted some economists to doubt Sheinbaum, who had said before today the government would seek a budget gap of 3% to 3.5% of GDP next year.
The broad financial support to Pemex will continue, as the government will transfer 136 billion pesos ($6.7 billion) to the state company to cover debt payments in 2025, according to the draft. The driller’s proposed budget for next year shows a surplus of 249 billion pesos, up from the surplus of 145 billion pesos in the 2024 draft.
Pemex, which relies on government cash injections and tax reductions to stay afloat, has around $9 billion in debt coming due next year and roughly $13 billion in 2026. Sheinbaum’s administration is looking to address Pemex’s nearly $100 billion debt load without having the company turn to capital markets in the short term, the president said on Wednesday.
Infrastructure Projects
Mexico’s 2025 budget includes a range of infrastructure projects, with the expansion of the country’s railway system as a priority, according to Ramirez de la O. The plan foresees the continuity of social programs that characterized the government of former head of state Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the minister said.
Mexico’s new Agency of Digital Transformation and Telecommunication will help modernize tax payment systems and optimize customs revenue, as the government continues to pledge not to raise taxes, according to the plan.
The administration has also slashed spending in other areas. The draft budget allocates 152 billion pesos for defense, a 41% decrease from the 259 billion pesos set aside for 2024.
The Finance Ministry sees the Mexican economy growing 2% to 3% next year, Ramirez de la O said. That estimate is higher than that of the central bank, which in August cut its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.2%.
Economist Skepticism
Before today, Ramirez de la O had said there won’t be a repeat of the 2024 deficit, which is the largest since the 1980s. This year’s expenditures rose as the government sought to complete infrastructure projects during Lopez Obrador’s last months in office, and they don’t represent recurring spending, he had said.
Some analysts remain skeptical. There are hurdles that could lead to a deficit above 4% next year, including the lack of a fiscal consolidation plan and spending commitments to public entities and social programs, JPMorgan economists Gabriel Lozano and Steven Palacio wrote in a note Thursday.
“It is possible that the government will favor growth over fiscal discipline to avoid a deterioration in government approvals and considering that growth forecasts have been downhill since early 2024,” Lozano and Palacio wrote.
Some economists also questioned government estimates of public debt at 51.4% of GDP in 2025. Tax collection will also reach 14.6% of GDP, Ramirez de la O told lawmakers on Friday.
“Overly optimistic forecasts make it unlikely that the projected deficit and debt will be achieved, increasing the likelihood of a sovereign credit rating downgrade,” said Gabriela Siller, head of economic research at Grupo Financiero Base.
Here are other key points from the budget:
--With assistance from Scott Squires, Maria Elena Vizcaino and Andrea Navarro.
(Adds budget details and analyst comments starting in second paragraph)
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